Global prediction model for COVID-19 pandemic with the characteristics of the multiple peaks and local fluctuations

Dai, Haoran; Cao, Wen; Tong, Xiaochong; Yao, Yunxing; Peng, Feilin; Zhu, Jingwen; Tian, Yuzhen

doi:10.1186/s12874-022-01604-x

Table 2 The estimated parameters of the IR_loop model at different stages

From: Global prediction model for COVID-19 pandemic with the characteristics of the multiple peaks and local fluctuations

Country	Stage	p₁	p₂/ p₅	p₃/ p₆	p₄/ p₇	ε₀	ε₁(×10⁻³)	γ	R²
U.S.	1	0.293	0.138	3.660	94.951	\	\	0.100	0.936
	2	0.245	0.196	0.102	3.588	0.127	0.727	\	0.289
	3	0.425	0.203	0.005	9.569	0.405	1.437	\	0.964
	4	0.217	0.029	0.066	1.493	0.108	0.839	\	0.851
	5	0.334	0.012	0.044	2.914	0.234	0.459	\	0.870
	6	0.934	0.017	0.063	2.079	0.832	0.171	\	0.954
	7	0.002	0.211	0.000	85.210	0.003	0.121	\	0.385
	8	0.001	0.527	0.000	5.426	0.162	0.069	\	0.844
	9	0.405	0.006	0.063	51.481	0.305	0.082	\	0.559
	10	0.531	0.015	0.016	7.067	0.434	0.004	\	0.103
	Prediction by predicted NO₂	0.047	0.707	0.227	57.699	0.650	0.000	\	0.064
	Prediction by actual NO₂	0.882	0.005	0.068	1.401	0.781	-0.076	\	0.284
U.K.	1	0.204	0.899	3.592	75.596	\	\	0.032	0.907
	2	0.283	0.834	0.934	89.311	0.187	2.485	\	−3.099
	3	0.143	0.070	0.075	0.157	0.108	0.259	\	0.905
	4	0.390	0.023	0.167	82.711	0.354	0.271	\	0.951
	5	0.142	0.014	0.292	20.555	0.102	0.082	\	0.692
	6	0.055	0.031	0.086	4.131	0.030	0.244	\	0.936
	7	1.033	0.035	0.075	0.000	1.000	0.000	\	0.970
	8	0.240	1.893	0.042	178.847	0.208	0.055	\	0.975
	9	0.054	1.569	0.001	0.794	0.797	0.217	\	0.947
	10	0.221	1.955	1.299	42.713	0.184	0.175	\	0.537
	11	0.612	0.291	0.369	23.030	0.865	0.040	\	0.829
	12	0.589	0.307	0.001	0.464	0.704	0.000	\	0.556
	Prediction by predicted NO₂	0.566	0.001	0.286	0.000	0.531	−0.017	\	0.224
	Prediction by actual NO₂	0.885	0.000	1.000	100.000	0.849	-0.058	\	0.334
India	1	0.199	0.002	0.434	52.312	\	\	0.064	0.812
	2	0.872	0.030	1.000	0.000	0.886	−10.077	\	0.771
	3	0.474	0.041	0.042	0.000	0.407	0.082	\	0.904
	4	0.248	0.022	0.143	74.240	0.182	0.174	\	0.989
	5	0.622	0.037	0.083	0.644	0.556	0.000	\	0.990
	Prediction by predicted NO₂	0.563	0.465	0.128	137.253	0.959	0.503	\	0.620
	Prediction by actual NO₂	0.325	0.094	0.000	99.734	0.307	-0.007	\	0.855
Brazil	1	0.357	0.967	1.922	53.753	\	\	0.044	0.678
	2	0.466	0.000	0.967	79.430	0.339	−2.163	\	0.735
	3	0.914	0.124	0.958	92.341	0.846	0.642	\	−0.303
	4	0.812	0.049	0.051	0.003	0.764	0.384	\	0.405
	5	0.950	0.017	2.000	0.000	0.916	0.602	\	0.253
	6	0.525	0.018	1.555	103.467	0.493	0.681	\	0.529
	7	0.362	0.060	0.004	6.939	0.343	0.367	\	0.099
	8	0.440	0.759	1.756	59.232	0.393	0.157	\	0.243
	9	0.951	0.005	0.043	0.145	0.906	0.029	\	0.358
	Prediction by predicted NO₂	0.935	0.005	0.055	0.000	0.890	0.060	\	0.348
	Prediction by actual NO₂	0.847	0.005	0.031	0.587	0.803	0.033	\	0.510
Russia	1	0.212	0.020	0.289	42.495	\	\	0.086	0.996
	2	0.754	0.000	0.998	52.113	0.611	−4.018	\	0.628
	3	0.110	0.071	0.048	0.000	0.019	−0.018	\	0.884
	4	0.546	0.008	0.111	28.932	0.456	−0.051	\	0.991
	5	0.520	0.012	0.045	26.391	0.432	−0.003	\	0.991
	6	0.689	0.008	0.046	45.131	0.602	0.013	\	0.961
	7	0.092	0.013	0.009	78.782	0.010	0.015	\	0.905
	8	0.829	0.712	0.277	43.082	0.739	0.052	\	0.855
	Prediction by predicted NO₂	0.889	0.012	0.035	62.029	0.802	0.007	\	−0.449
	Prediction by actual NO₂	0.572	0.005	0.092	0.276	0.487	-0.070	\	0.823
German	1	0.295	0.663	4.294	73.495	\	\	0.099	0.918
	2	0.111	0.225	0.129	0.000	0.008	0.418	\	0.915
	3	0.290	0.038	0.119	100.000	0.186	0.276	\	0.857
	4	0.999	0.032	0.120	0.176	0.886	1.221	\	0.142
	5	0.450	0.156	0.009	199.726	0.477	0.006	\	0.331
	6	0.858	0.005	0.158	28.293	0.758	0.283	\	0.490
	7	0.210	0.017	0.028	55.876	0.117	0.381	\	0.625
	8	1.044	0.011	0.046	99.842	0.944	0.034	\	0.654
	9	0.509	0.530	0.398	133.925	0.937	0.110	\	0.427
	Prediction by predicted NO₂	0.476	0.016	0.044	71.132	0.376	0.152	\	0.399
	Prediction by actual NO₂	0.639	0.253	1.259	190.671	0.788	0.350	\	0.262

The closer R² ∈ (−∞, 1] is to 1, the closer the real value is to the predicted value

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ISSN: 1471-2288

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