Global prediction model for COVID-19 pandemic with the characteristics of the multiple peaks and local fluctuations

Dai, Haoran; Cao, Wen; Tong, Xiaochong; Yao, Yunxing; Peng, Feilin; Zhu, Jingwen; Tian, Yuzhen

doi:10.1186/s12874-022-01604-x

Table 3 The estimated parameters of the SEAICR_loop model at different stages

From: Global prediction model for COVID-19 pandemic with the characteristics of the multiple peaks and local fluctuations

Country	Stage	p₁	p₂/p₅	p₃/p₆	p₄/p₇	ε₀	ε₁	θ(×10⁻⁴)	φ	R²
U.S.	1	0.000	0.001	0.625	53.153	\	\	0.975	0.021	0.979
	2	0.002	0.019	1.000	0.212	0.000	0.019	\	\	0.414
	3	0.004	0.016	0.104	26.084	0.282	0.036	\	\	0.931
	4	0.010	0.019	0.080	2.044	0.504	0.022	\	\	0.746
	5	0.003	0.354	0.043	123.634	0.471	0.005	\	\	0.885
	6	0.327	0.232	1.00	26.383	0.542	0.013	\	\	0.881
	7	0.009	0.817	0.073	103.328	0.418	0.027	\	\	0.307
	8	0.003	0.033	0.069	0.648	0.899	0.017	\	\	0.821
	9	0.001	0.018	0.117	40.241	0.718	0.000	\	\	0.576
	10	0.013	0.004	1.000	15.132	0.662	0.000	\	\	0.087
U.K.	1	0.000	0.021	0.123	68.784	\	\	0.002	0.010	0.974
	2	0.006	0.738	0.760	128.029	0.385	−0.039	\	\	−0.370
	3	0.001	0.012	0.078	0.000	0.371	−0.023	\	\	0.904
	4	0.003	0.488	0.089	113.493	0.988	−0.010	\	\	0.955
	5	0.288	0.167	1.000	20.777	0.910	0.000	\	\	0.516
	6	0.028	1.000	0.226	30.958	0.228	−0.013	\	\	0.851
	7	0.822	0.004	0.232	100.000	0.221	0.000	\	\	0.922
	8	0.002	0.755	0.078	81.526	0.260	−0.009	\	\	0.967
	9	0.026	0.725	1.000	0.000	0.544	−0.021	\	\	0.948
	10	0.010	0.996	0.036	161.878	0.281	0.012	\	\	0.320
	11	0.007	0.080	1.000	0.002	0.290	0.012	\	\	0.748
	12	0.006	0.791	0.312	36.193	0.155	0.004	\	\	0.398
India	1	0.000	0.322	0.127	150.974	\	\	0.998	0.056	0.812
	2	0.000	0.014	0.024	176.259	0.894	0.089	\	\	0.963
	3	0.001	0.006	0.041	0.068	1.000	0.060	\	\	0.868
	4	0.000	0.033	0.068	95.547	1.000	0.019	\	\	0.982
	5	0.002	0.012	0.141	15.817	1.000	0.036	\	\	0.986
Brazil	1	0.000	0.283	0.169	71.120	\	\	0.773	0.015	0.778
	2	0.000	0.042	0.069	63.196	1.000	0.005	\	\	0.863
	3	0.003	0.306	0.019	137.405	1.000	0.004	\	\	0.192
	4	0.010	0.062	0.021	58.595	1.000	−0.009	\	\	0.326
	5	0.026	0.022	1.000	53.233	0.696	−0.005	\	\	0.139
	6	0.000	0.593	0.021	152.796	0.745	0.022	\	\	0.295
	7	0.041	0.003	1.000	20.555	0.905	−0.050	\	\	0.129
	8	0.023	1.000	1.000	56.585	0.963	−0.001	\	\	0.066
	9	0.010	0.006	0.202	50.338	1.000	− 0.092	\	\	−1.057
Russia	1	0.000	0.019	0.140	92.709	\	\	0.275	0.016	0.996
	2	0.002	1.000	0.076	94.411	0.339	−0.020	\	\	0.923
	3	0.002	0.006	0.024	13.978	0.433	0.004	\	\	0.962
	4	0.000	0.068	0.031	84.262	0.901	−0.002	\	\	0.985
	5	0.017	0.030	0.076	46.429	0.994	0.000	\	\	0.990
	6	0.002	0.020	0.099	19.842	0.695	0.003	\	\	0.974
	7	0.017	0.004	0.076	24.714	0.715	0.003	\	\	0.952
	8	0.007	0.960	0.199	41.889	0.531	0.015	\	\	0.813
German	1	0.000	0.018	0.146	67.301	\	\	0.001	0.018	0.941
	2	0.000	0.010	0.132	0.941	0.401	0.000	\	\	0.911
	3	0.002	0.891	0.087	143.050	1.000	0.019	\	\	0.857
	4	0.043	1.000	1.000	63.241	1.000	-0.024	\	\	0.074
	5	0.000	0.023	1.000	29.297	1.000	-0.082	\	\	−2.346
	6	0.011	0.016	0.402	29.240	0.998	0.015	\	\	0.320
	7	0.002	0.035	0.137	22.234	0.863	−0.085	\	\	0.614
	8	0.000	1.000	0.057	151.477	1.000	−0.108	\	\	0.705
	9	0.001	0.008	1.000	50.425	1.000	0.025	\	\	-0.149

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ISSN: 1471-2288

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