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Table 2 Hazard ratios comparing risks of death and ≥ 1 severe exacerbation among the different states based on the best fitting Weibull multi-state Markov model without adjustment for covariates (mITT population)

From: Relationship between risk, cumulative burden of exacerbations and mortality in patients with COPD: modelling analysis using data from the ETHOS study

Transition to death from vs transition to death from HR SE 95% CI
State 2 (1 moderate exacerbation) State 1 (No exacerbation) 1.8 0.3 (1.1–2.9)
State 3 (≥ 2 moderate exacerbations) State 1 (No exacerbation) 2.1 0.3 (1.1–3.9)
State 3 (≥ 2 moderate exacerbations) State 2 (1 moderate exacerbation) 1.2 0.4 (0.6–2.4)
State 4 (≥ 1 severe exacerbations) State 1 (No exacerbation) 11.4 0.2 (7.7–17.0)
State 4 (≥ 1 severe exacerbations) State 2 (1 moderate exacerbation) 6.4 0.3 (3.8–10.8)
State 4 (≥ 1 severe exacerbations) State 3 (≥ 2 moderate exacerbations) 5.4 0.3 (2.9–10.3)
Transition to ≥ 1 severe exacerbation from vs transition to ≥ 1 severe exacerbation from    
State 2 (1 moderate exacerbation) State 1 (No exacerbation) 1.4 0.1 (1.2–1.6)
State 3 (≥ 2 moderate exacerbations) State 1 (No exacerbation) 1.9 0.1 (1.6–2.3)
State 3 (≥ 2 moderate exacerbations) State 2 (1 moderate exacerbation) 1.4 0.1 (1.1–1.7)
  1. HR Hazard ratio, CI Confidence interval, mITT Modified intent-to-treat, SE Standard error for the log hazard ratio
  2. Markov assumption: transition to future states depends only on the current state at time t and not previously occupied states