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Table 3 Estimated transition probabilities from baseline to 4 weeks based on the Weibull multi-state model using the Markov assumptiona and fitted without covariates, reported per 10,000 patients (mITT population)

From: Relationship between risk, cumulative burden of exacerbations and mortality in patients with COPD: modelling analysis using data from the ETHOS study

From
exacerbation state
To exacerbation state
State 1
(No exacerbation)
State 2
(1 moderate exacerbation)
State 3
(≥ 2 moderate exacerbations)
State 4
(≥ 1 severe exacerbations)
State 5
(Death)
State 1 (No exacerbation) 9085 (9027–9136) 693 (655–734) 61 (53–70) 147 (134–161) 15 (12–18)
State 2 (1 moderate exacerbation) 0 (0–0) 8256 (8115–8383) 1514 (1396–1632) 205 (176–238) 25 (18–37)
State 3 (≥ 2 moderate exacerbations) 0 (0–0) 0 (0–0) 9696 (9636–9747) 274 (227–330) 29 (17–50)
State 4 (≥ 1 severe exacerbations) 0 (0–0) 0 (0–0) 0 (0–0) 9851 (9795–9894) 149 (106–205)
State 5 (Death) 0 (0–0) 0 (0–0) 0 (0–0) 0 (0–0) 10,000 (10,000–10,000)
  1. 95% CIs are reported and were obtained by simulating 1000 samples from the asymptotic normal distribution of the maximum likelihood estimates [38]
  2. CI Confidence interval, mITT Modified intent-to-treat
  3. aMarkov assumption is that transition to future states depends only on the current state at time t and not previously occupied states