Table 3 Odds ratios from the largest, standard, and smallest models in terms of number of 12 risk factors available from an end-user. Sample sizes are the number of individuals in the training set with all risk factors available (complete cases), and number of cohorts contributing the complete cases. In total 1,024 models are available based on the option for included versus not for 10 risk factors, all except PSA and age

Odds ratios for the full model containing 12 risk factors based on a fit to 1334 prostate biopsies from 3 cohorts

Age

1.07

(1.05, 1.09)

 < 0.0001

PSA (log2)

2.38

(1.98, 2.89)

 < 0.0001

African ancestry

    No

Ref

–

–

    Yes

0.68

(0.45, 1.03)

0.08

 Prostate volume (log2)

0.25

(0.20, 0.32)

 < 0.0001

DRE

    Normal

Ref

–

–

    Abnormal

1.95

(1.46, 2.60)

 < 0.0001

Prior negative biopsy

    No

Ref

–

–

    Yes

0.32

(0.22, 0.45)

 < 0.0001

Hispanic ethnicity

    No

Ref

–

–

    Yes

1.08

(0.78, 1.50)

0.6

5-alpha-reductase-inhibitor use

    No

Ref

–

–

    Yes

0.96

(0.63, 1.44)

0.8

Prior PSA screen

    No

Ref

–

–

    Yes

0.71

(0.38, 1.34)

0.3

First-degree prostate cancer family history

    No

Ref

–

–

    Yes

1.93

(1.38, 2.69)

0.0001

Second-degree prostate cancer family history

    No

Ref

–

–

    Yes

1.30

(0.86, 1.96)

0.2

First-degree breast cancer family history

    No

Ref

–

–

    Yes

1.15

(0.77, 1.70)

0.5

Odds ratios for the model containing the 6 standard risk factors based on a fit to 8432 prostate biopsies from 9 cohorts

 Age

1.05

(1.04, 1.06)

 < 0.0001

 PSA (log2)

1.99

(1.86, 2.12)

 < 0.0001

African ancestry

    No

Ref

–

–

    Yes

1.26

(1.11, 1.44)

0.0005

DRE

    Normal

Ref

–

–

    Abnormal

2.57

(2.29, 2.88)

 < 0.0001

Prior negative biopsy

    No

Ref

–

–

    Yes

0.28

(0.24, 0.32)

 < 0.0001

First-degree prostate cancer family history

    No

Ref

–

–

    Yes

1.94

(1.70, 2.22)

 < 0.0001

Odds ratios for the smallest model containing 2 risk factors based on a fit to 12,703 prostate biopsies from 10 cohorts

 Age

1.05

(1.05, 1.06)

 < 0.0001

 PSA (log2)

1.72

(1.64, 1.80)

 < 0.0001