Fig. 3

Left: Prior (grey dashed line) and posterior (full black line) distribution of the treatment effect obtained with the Bayesian model-averaged estimation. Right: Model-averaged prior (dashed lines) and posterior (full lines) survival function in the comparator arm (light green) and experimental arm (deep purple) obtained with the Bayesian model-averaged estimation. The shaded areas correspond to a 95% prior (less saturated) and posterior (more saturated) credible intervals. The mean of model-averaged prior distribution in the experimental arm for Bayesian model-averaged estimation is slightly bellow the mean in the control arm due to the non-linear transformations involved in computing survival, despite the prior distribution being centered at zero treatment effect