Fig. 5

Left: Root mean square error (RMSE, y-axis; 95% confidence intervals are not shown as they are shorter than the symbols) of the mean log acceleration factor estimates for different sample sizes (x-axis) and methods (colors/shapes) averaged across all simulation conditions. RMSE of AIC and BIC model selection with n = 50 estimates is out of the plotting range (AIC = 1.78, BIC = 1.91). Right: Root mean square error and 95% confidence intervals (RMSE, y-axis) of the predicted mean survival at 20 years estimates for different sample sizes (x-axis) and methods (colors/shapes) averaged across all simulation conditions. Methods: Bayesian model-averaging (BMA, deep purple circles) and model selection over parametric families with: Bayes factors (BF = light green triangles), AIC (light green circles), and BIC (deep purple squares)