Table 1 Number of deaths prevented and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the three scenarios and their various assumptions
Year of implementation | Approach | Number of deaths preventeda | 95% CI | Number of deaths preventeda | 95% CI | Number of deaths preventeda | 95% CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scenario 1 | Effect size | ||||||
−5 | − 10 | − 15 | |||||
True value | 60 | 120 | 180 | ||||
5 | Estimated | 56 | (1, 112) | 122 | (71, 173) | 179 | (126, 233) |
Predicted | 55 | (−43, 153) | 118 | (24, 213) | 176 | (77, 275) | |
True value | 60 | 120 | 180 | ||||
9 | Estimated | 61 | (0, 122) | 121 | (54, 188) | 181 | (118, 245) |
Predicted | 61 | (−18, 140) | 120 | (41, 200) | 181 | (101, 261) | |
True value | 50 | 120 | 180 | ||||
13 | Estimated | 59 | (1, 117) | 119 | (62, 176) | 179 | (120, 238) |
Predicted | 59 | (−15, 133) | 118 | (44, 192) | 179 | (102, 256) | |
Scenario 2 | Effect size | ||||||
−5 | −10 | −15 | |||||
True value | 52 | 112 | 172 | ||||
5 | Estimated | 52 | (7, 96) | 112 | (67, 156) | 171 | (127, 215) |
Predicted | 50 | (−50, 150) | 111 | (10, 212) | 171 | (71, 271) | |
True value | 52 | 112 | 172 | ||||
9 | Estimated | 52 | (22, 82) | 112 | (80, 145) | 172 | (142, 202) |
Predicted | 53 | (−26, 131) | 111 | (30, 191) | 172 | (94, 251) | |
True value | 52 | 112 | 172 | ||||
13 | Estimated | 52 | (21, 82) | 113 | (81, 144) | 171 | (141, 202) |
Predicted | 51 | (−23, 124) | 111 | (35, 187) | 179 | (94, 247) | |
Scenario 3 | Effect size | ||||||
−5 | −10 | −15 | |||||
True value | 1 | 17 | 33 | ||||
5 | Estimated | 0 | (− 28, 28) | 17 | (−11, 45) | 33 | (4, 62) |
Predicted | −1 | (− 93, 91) | 16 | (−75, 108) | 32 | (− 59, 124) | |
True value | 1 | 17 | 33 | ||||
9 | Estimated | 1 | (−19, 20) | 17 | (−3, 37) | 33 | (13, 52) |
Predicted | 0 | (−74, 75) | 15 | (− 57, 88) | 34 | (−41, 108) | |
True value | 1 | 17 | 33 | ||||
13 | Estimated | 0 | (−20, 21) | 17 | (−2, 35) | 33 | (14, 52) |
Predicted | 0 | (− 68, 67) | 15 | (−53, 83) | 32 | (−38, 102) | |