Year of implementation | Approach | Number of deaths preventeda | 95% CI | Number of deaths preventeda | 95% CI | Number of deaths preventeda | 95% CI |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scenario 3, using Model 1 | Effect size | ||||||
−5 | −10 | − 15 | |||||
True values | 1 | 17 | 33 | ||||
5 | Estimated | 45 | (−12, 101) | 85 | (21, 148) | 107 | (9, 205) |
Predicted | −1 | (−93, 91) | 16 | (−77, 108) | 32 | (− 60, 124) | |
True values | 1 | 17 | 33 | ||||
9 | Estimated | 28 | (− 36, 91) | 61 | (−8, 130) | 91 | (11, 171) |
Predicted | 1 | (−73, 75) | 16 | (−59, 90) | 34 | (−41, 109) | |
True values | 1 | 17 | 33 | ||||
13 | Estimated | −7 | (−63, 50) | 33 | (−24, 91) | 74 | (14, 134) |
Predicted | 0 | (−68, 67) | 15 | (−55, 85) | 32 | (−38, 102) | |
Scenario 3, using Model 2 | Effect size | ||||||
−5 | −10 | −15 | |||||
True values | 1 | 17 | 33 | ||||
5 | Estimated | 13 | (−67, 94) | 58 | (−27, 142) | 85 | (−20, 191) |
Predicted | −1 | (−93, 91) | 16 | (−75, 108) | 32 | (−60, 124) | |
True values | 1 | 17 | 33 | ||||
9 | Estimated | 13 | (− 49, 75) | 51 | (−16, 117) | 83 | (1, 164) |
Predicted | 0 | (−74, 75) | 16 | (−57, 89) | 34 | (−41, 109) | |
True values | 1 | 17 | 33 | ||||
13 | Estimated | 8 | (−50, 66) | 38 | (−24, 99) | 68 | (3, 132) |
Predicted | 0 | (−68, 67) | 15 | (−55, 84) | 32 | (−38, 102) |