Skip to main content

Table 2 The comparison of ES method and ARIMA model for the weekly new cases of CHD among newborns in Jinhua

From: Prediction of congenital heart disease for newborns: comparative analysis of Holt-Winters exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrated moving average models

Time

Original number of CHD cases

ARIMA(2,1,1)

Additive Holt-winters ES method

Last 12 week

20

15

6

Last 11 week

17

11

3

Last 10 week

12

6

3

Last 9 week

23

6

2

Last 8 week

15

4

0

Last 7 week

15

3

3

Last 6 week

7

2

3

Last 5 week

11

3

3

Last 4 week

9

3

2

Last 3 week

11

3

3

Last 2 week

16

3

3

Last 1 week

5

2

4

MSE

84.83

137.17

MAPE

226.07

245.47

RMSE

9.21

11.71