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Table 3 Change in aggregated incidencea (2018, 2030)b in mixing scenarios compared to no-mixing (baseline interventionc)

From: Evaluating the sensitivity of jurisdictional heterogeneity and jurisdictional mixing in national level HIV prevention analyses: context of the U.S. ending the HIV epidemic plan

Scenario no. ➔

S1

S2

S3

S4

S9

S10

S11

S12

Care assumption ➔

Homogeneity in care across jurisdictions (2018, 2030)b

Heterogeneity in care across jurisdictions (2018, 2030)b

Mixing assumption ➔

No-mixing

Mixing level 1

Mixing level 2

Mixing level 3

No-mixing

Mixing level 1

Mixing level 2

Mixing level 3

Risk group

Jurisdiction type

All

National

Ref

7, 11%

24, 22%

24, 26%

Ref

2, 2%

7, 5%

8, 9%

EHE

Ref

-3, −4%

−10, −8%

−5, − 4%

Ref

−1, −1%

−2, −2%

0, 0%

Non-EHE

Ref

19, 28%

67, 55%

60, 60%

Ref

5, 7%

18, 15%

19, 21%

HM

National

Ref

5, 8%

22, 21%

24, 25%

Ref

5, 4%

21, 14%

21, 16%

EHE

Ref

−2, −4%

−9, −10%

0, − 4%

Ref

−2, − 2%

−8, −7%

−6, −6%

Non-EHE

Ref

15, 25%

65, 65%

57, 64%

Ref

14, 11%

59, 36%

57, 39%

HF

National

Ref

4, 9%

15, 20%

16, 23%

Ref

2, 3%

7, 7%

8, 10%

EHE

Ref

−2, −4%

−8, −9%

−5, − 5%

Ref

− 1, − 1%

−3, −3%

−2, −3%

Non-EHE

Ref

14, 26%

50, 56%

45, 59%

Ref

5, 7%

17, 16%

17, 21%

MSM

National

Ref

8, 12%

27, 22%

27, 27%

Ref

1, 2%

5, 4%

6, 9%

EHE

Ref

−3, −4%

−11, −8%

−5, − 4%

Ref

0, − 1%

− 1, −2%

1, 2%

Non-EHE

Ref

20, 29%

72, 54%

64, 60%

Ref

4, 6%

14, 12%

15, 19%

  1. HM Heterosexual males, HF Heterosexual females, MSM Men who have sex with men
  2. National: aggregate of all EHE and non-EHE jurisdictions; EHE: aggregate of all EHE jurisdictions; Non-EHE: aggregate of all non-EHE jurisdictions
  3. a % change in incidence in mixing compared to no-mixing scenario = 100 × (mixing scenario – no-mixing scenario)/mixing scenario)
  4. b Values presented are for years 2018, 2030, respectively, and represents the range over the duration of the simulation
  5. c Scenarios 1 to 4 and 9 to 12 keep care metrics (HIV-diagnosis rate, care-drop-out rate, and PrEP coverage) fixed at the 2018 baseline values for the full duration of the simulation