Scenario no. ➔ | S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | S9 | S10 | S11 | S12 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Care assumption ➔ | Homogeneity in care across jurisdictions (2018, 2030)b | Heterogeneity in care across jurisdictions (2018, 2030)b | |||||||
Mixing assumption ➔ | No-mixing | Mixing level 1 | Mixing level 2 | Mixing level 3 | No-mixing | Mixing level 1 | Mixing level 2 | Mixing level 3 | |
Risk group | Jurisdiction type | ||||||||
All | National | Ref | 7, 11% | 24, 22% | 24, 26% | Ref | 2, 2% | 7, 5% | 8, 9% |
EHE | Ref | -3, −4% | −10, −8% | −5, − 4% | Ref | −1, −1% | −2, −2% | 0, 0% | |
Non-EHE | Ref | 19, 28% | 67, 55% | 60, 60% | Ref | 5, 7% | 18, 15% | 19, 21% | |
HM | National | Ref | 5, 8% | 22, 21% | 24, 25% | Ref | 5, 4% | 21, 14% | 21, 16% |
EHE | Ref | −2, −4% | −9, −10% | 0, − 4% | Ref | −2, − 2% | −8, −7% | −6, −6% | |
Non-EHE | Ref | 15, 25% | 65, 65% | 57, 64% | Ref | 14, 11% | 59, 36% | 57, 39% | |
HF | National | Ref | 4, 9% | 15, 20% | 16, 23% | Ref | 2, 3% | 7, 7% | 8, 10% |
EHE | Ref | −2, −4% | −8, −9% | −5, − 5% | Ref | − 1, − 1% | −3, −3% | −2, −3% | |
Non-EHE | Ref | 14, 26% | 50, 56% | 45, 59% | Ref | 5, 7% | 17, 16% | 17, 21% | |
MSM | National | Ref | 8, 12% | 27, 22% | 27, 27% | Ref | 1, 2% | 5, 4% | 6, 9% |
EHE | Ref | −3, −4% | −11, −8% | −5, − 4% | Ref | 0, − 1% | − 1, −2% | 1, 2% | |
Non-EHE | Ref | 20, 29% | 72, 54% | 64, 60% | Ref | 4, 6% | 14, 12% | 15, 19% |