Scenario no. ➔ | S5 | S6 | S7 | S8 | S13 | S14 | S15 | S16 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Care assumption ➔ | Homogeneity in care across jurisdictions (2018, 2030)b | Heterogeneity in care across jurisdictions (2018, 2030)b | |||||||
Mixing assumption ➔ | No-mixing | Mixing level 1 | Mixing level 2 | Mixing level 3 | No-mixing | Mixing level 1 | Mixing level 2 | Mixing level 3 | |
Risk group | Jurisdiction type | ||||||||
All | National | Ref | 7, 4% | 24, 6% | 24, 10% | Ref | 2, −1% | 7, −3% | 8, 1% |
EHE | Ref | −3, 0% | −10, 1% | −5, 7% | Ref | − 1, 4% | −2, 8% | 0, 15% | |
Non-EHE | Ref | 19, 7% | 67, 9% | 60, 13% | Ref | 5, −4% | 18, − 11% | 19, − 9% | |
HM | National | Ref | 5, 4% | 22, 10% | 23, 13% | Ref | 5, 0% | 21, 0% | 21, 5% |
EHE | Ref | −2, −2% | −9, −4% | −6, 0% | Ref | −2, 0% | −8%, − 25 | −6, 2% | |
Non-EHE | Ref | 15, 9% | 65, 21% | 63, 24% | Ref | 14, 0% | 59, 5% | 57, 6% | |
HF | National | Ref | 4, 4% | 15, 7% | 15, 10% | Ref | 2, −2% | 7, −5% | 8, − 2% |
EHE | Ref | −2, −1% | −8, 0% | −7, 4% | Ref | − 1, 2% | −3, 4% | − 2, 8% | |
Non-EHE | Ref | 14, 7% | 50, 11% | 47, 14% | Ref | 5, −3% | 17, − 9% | 17, − 7% | |
MSM | National | Ref | 8, 4% | 28, 6% | 26, 10% | Ref | 1, − 1% | 5, − 3% | 6, 2% |
EHE | Ref | −3, 0% | − 11, 2% | − 9, 8% | Ref | 0, 5% | − 1, 10% | 1, 18% | |
Non-EHE | Ref | 20, 6% | 72, 8% | 67, 11% | Ref | 4, − 5% | 14, − 13% | 15, − 11% |