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Table 4 Change in aggregated incidencea (2018, 2030)b in mixing scenarios compared to no-mixing (EHE planc)

From: Evaluating the sensitivity of jurisdictional heterogeneity and jurisdictional mixing in national level HIV prevention analyses: context of the U.S. ending the HIV epidemic plan

Scenario no. ➔

S5

S6

S7

S8

S13

S14

S15

S16

Care assumption ➔

Homogeneity in care across jurisdictions

(2018, 2030)b

Heterogeneity in care across jurisdictions

(2018, 2030)b

Mixing assumption ➔

No-mixing

Mixing level 1

Mixing level 2

Mixing level 3

No-mixing

Mixing level 1

Mixing level 2

Mixing level 3

Risk group

Jurisdiction  type

All

National

Ref

7, 4%

24, 6%

24, 10%

Ref

2, −1%

7, −3%

8, 1%

EHE

Ref

−3, 0%

−10, 1%

−5, 7%

Ref

− 1, 4%

−2, 8%

0, 15%

Non-EHE

Ref

19, 7%

67, 9%

60, 13%

Ref

5, −4%

18, − 11%

19, − 9%

HM

National

Ref

5, 4%

22, 10%

23, 13%

Ref

5, 0%

21, 0%

21, 5%

EHE

Ref

−2, −2%

−9, −4%

−6, 0%

Ref

−2, 0%

−8%, − 25

−6, 2%

Non-EHE

Ref

15, 9%

65, 21%

63, 24%

Ref

14, 0%

59, 5%

57, 6%

HF

National

Ref

4, 4%

15, 7%

15, 10%

Ref

2, −2%

7, −5%

8, − 2%

EHE

Ref

−2, −1%

−8, 0%

−7, 4%

Ref

− 1, 2%

−3, 4%

− 2, 8%

Non-EHE

Ref

14, 7%

50, 11%

47, 14%

Ref

5, −3%

17, − 9%

17, − 7%

MSM

National

Ref

8, 4%

28, 6%

26, 10%

Ref

1, − 1%

5, − 3%

6, 2%

EHE

Ref

−3, 0%

− 11, 2%

− 9, 8%

Ref

0, 5%

− 1, 10%

1, 18%

Non-EHE

Ref

20, 6%

72, 8%

67, 11%

Ref

4, − 5%

14, − 13%

15, − 11%

  1. HM Heterosexual males, HF Heterosexual females, MSM Men who have sex with men
  2. National: aggregate of all EHE and non-EHE jurisdictions; EHE: aggregate of all EHE jurisdictions; Non-EHE: aggregate of all non-EHE jurisdictions;
  3. a % change in incidence in mixing compared to no-mixing scenario = 100 × (mixing scenario – no-mixing scenario)/mixing scenario)
  4. b Values presented are for years 2018, 2030, respectively, and represents the range over the duration of the simulation
  5. c Scenarios 5 to 8 and 13 to 16 scale-up care metrics (HIV-diagnosis rate, care-drop-out rate, and PrEP coverage) from 2018 baseline to reach EHE targets by 2025 for EHE jurisdictions and by 2030 for non-EHE jurisdictions