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Fig. 3 | BMC Medical Research Methodology

Fig. 3

From: Unraveling the COVID-19 hospitalization dynamics in Spain using Bayesian inference

Fig. 3

Forecasting bed occupancy in Aragon during the 2020-2021 Christmas wave. Dots show the actual value of bed occupancy, while solid lines represent the median value of the forecast, and their shaded regions display the 95% C.I. of the forecast for the week starting at the indicated date. At each date depicted in the figure, rather than using the observed incidence as in Fig. 2, the prediction algorithm runs on the number of cases detected up to that date and forecasts occupancy assuming a certain change of R(t). In the prediction made on January 11, 2021, the change is assumed to be + 0%. Following the introduction of several containment measures on January 15, the daily change was assumed to be − 5%

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