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Fig. 6 | BMC Medical Research Methodology

Fig. 6

From: Estimating individualized treatment effects from randomized controlled trials: a simulation study to compare risk-based approaches

Fig. 6

Individualized absolute benefit predictions based on baseline risk when using a constant treatment effect approach, a linear interaction approach and RCS smoothing using 3 knots. Risk stratified estimates of absolute benefit are presented within quartiles of baseline risk as reference. 95% confidence bands were generated using 10,000 bootstrap resamples, where the prediction model was refitted in each run to capture the uncertainty in baseline risk predictions. For the risk stratification approach, we also provide 95% confidence intervals for the baseline risk quarter-specific average predicted risk over the 10,000 bootstrap samples

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