Input parameter | Value* | Range$ | Distribution | Source |
---|---|---|---|---|
Probability of early death (within 30Â days) | EuroSCORE risk equation | Â | [37] | |
Probability death is due to fatal stroke event | 13.2% | 7.5 – 20.2% | Beta(14,92) | [25] |
Probability that a stroke event is not fatal | 80.8% | 75.3 – 85.8% | Beta(173,41) | [38] |
Probability that stroke is caused by emboli | 71.0% | 63.3 – 77.8% | Beta(107,44) | [38] |
Manual palpation: sensitivity | 31% | 22 – 40% | Beta(33,73) | [31] |
Manual palpation: specificity | 98% | 96 – 100% | Beta(179,4) | [31] |
Modified TEE: sensitivity | 97% | 94 – 100% | Beta(124,4) | [39] |
Modified TEE: specificity | 80% | 74 – 85% | Beta(173,44) | [39] |
Risk reduction of post-operative stroke due to adaptations when applying the modified TEE | 0.46 | 0.196 – 0.910 | LogNormal (−0.864, 0.392) | [25]†|
Probability of a major adaptation of surgery given a patient with atherosclerosis | 2.7% | 2.3 – 3.1% | Beta(163,5888) | [40] |
Risk of death (year 1–2 post-surgery): age < 61 years | 1.18% | 0.82 – 1.42% | Uniform | [41] ‡ |
Risk of death (year 1–5 post-surgery): age 61–70 years | 2.33% | 1.95 – 2.71% | Uniform | [41] ‡ |
Risk of death (year 1–5 post-surgery): age > 70 years | 4.35% | 3.49 – 5.24% | Uniform | [41] ‡ |
Utility of the ‘Post Stroke’ health state | 0.439 | 0.186 – 0.653 | Triangular | [42]^ |
Utility of the ‘No complications’ health state | 1 | - | - | Default |
Cost of death (Euros) | 2,736 | 1,368 – 5,471 | Uniform | Expert opinion [43] |
Diagnostic cost of modified TEE tool (Euros) | 212 | 184 –243 | Gamma | Manufacturer |
Cost of fatal stroke event (Euros) | 2,736 | 1,368 – 5,471 | Uniform | # |
Discount rate for costs | 4.0% | - | - | Dutch guidelines |
Discount rate for effects | 1.5% | - | - | Dutch guidelines |