Model | Coefficient | P | UL_95% CI | LL_95% CI |
---|---|---|---|---|
Raw mortality | ||||
ARMA | ||||
Autoregressive parameters | ||||
L24 | 0.174 | 0.016 | 0.033 | 0.316 |
Moving average parameters | ||||
L1 | −0.148 | 0.021 | −0.274 | −0.022 |
L15 | 0.265 | 0.000 | 0.128 | 0.402 |
L17 | −0.203 | 0.003 | −0.340 | −0.067 |
ARCH | ||||
L1 | 0.014 | 0.464 | −0.024 | 0.052 |
GARCH | ||||
L1 | 0.996 | 0.000 | 0.931 | 1.061 |
Expected mortality | ||||
ARMA | ||||
Autoregressive parameters | ||||
L1 | 0.145 | 0.045 | 0.003 | 0.288 |
ARMA12 | ||||
Autoregressive parameters | ||||
L1 | 0.132 | 0.075 | −0.031 | 0.277 |