Fig. 2

MDS trial- Sensitivity analyses of the distribution of response rate in each treatment arm according to the prior choice in terms of location (non-informative centered on 0.5, skeptical centered on 0.3 or enthusiastic centered on 0.45) and effective sample size (ESS ranging from 1–5 in experimental arms up to 10 in control). Upper plots display the prior densities while lower plots display the posterior densities. The left plots refer to the non-informative situation in which all of the three priors are uniform over [0,1] (Be (1,1)) or distributed according to Jeffreys prior (Be (1/2,1/2); the middle and right plots refer to the situations in which the priors were either skeptical (middle plots) or enthusiastic (right plots); each uses various effective sample sizes (ESS) denoting various amounts of prior information