Estimating cardiovascular disease incidence from prevalence: a spreadsheet based model

Table 2 Incidence rate of heart diseases in NPHS cohort and model estimates for the Canadian population from 2001 to 2011 (1/100000)

	2001–2003	2003–2005	2005–2007	2007–2009	2009–2011
NPHS incidence	983	1025	1003	1031	1016
lower 95% CI of reported incidence	831	845	840	852	802
upper95% CI of reported incidence	1136	1204	1165	1209	1230
Estimated incidence 1^a	1018	893	918	1097	1023
Estimated incidence 2^b	927	779	783	873	752

^aEstimated incidence 1, standardized to NPHS age structure
^bEstimated incidence 2, standardized to 2000 Canadian census population
Incidence of heart disease (standardized to 2000 Canadian census population) = 887-13*(year-2000)

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