Skip to main content

Table 1 Summary of final design points used for emulation, based on example national data from Kenya

From: Gaussian process emulation to improve efficiency of computationally intensive multidisease models: a practical tutorial with adaptable R code

Simulator Output Description

Simulation year

 

2018

2028

Source

Annual incidence of hypertension

3.90%

(3.8–4.1)

4.20%

(4.0–4.3)

[29]

Annual incidence of HIV

0.85%

(0.83–0.87)

0.37%

(0.36–0.38)

[29]

Annual incidence of HIV or hypertension among individuals who already have the other disease (comorbid HIV and hypertension)

0.37%

(0.33–0.39)

0.37%

(0.33–0.39)

[29]

Prevalence of hypertension

29.47%

(0.28–0.31)

34.30%

(0.33–0.35)

[29]

Prevalence of HIV

4.81%

(0.04–0.05)

2.55%

(0.02–0.03)

[29]

Prevalence of comorbid HIV and hypertension

2.06%

(0.02–0.03)

1.31%

(0.01–0.02)

[29]

All-cause mortality

~ 1500 per 100,000

~ 1500 per 100,000

[29]

Depression prevalence among people living with HIV

3.90%

3.70%a

[36]

  1. a Prevalence of depression in 2028 represents the average prevalence between years 2025 and 2030. Numbers in parenthesis represent 95% uncertainty ranges