We tested SSA in different realistic scenarios for the underlying trend in uptake of a newly marketed medicine over time
 for different effect sizes and a fixed population size of 1 million people. In all simulations adjustment for trends in prescribing using the null-effect sequence ratio appeared to effectively overcome under-ascertainment bias. When trends in medicine use were present, the crude sequence ratio underestimated the true association by 12-16%. After adjustment for underlying medicine utilisation patterns relative bias was 1 to 2%.
SSA analyses had high statistical power in all simulations with effect sizes greater than or equal to 1.5 regardless of the medicine uptake trend. For an effect size of 1.2 and a gradual uptake of the medicine, SSA had only 66% power. This is most likely a consequence of smaller numbers of patients available for analysis in the early years of a gradual medicine uptake rate. However, under the gradual medicine uptake utilization scenario, effect sizes of 1.5 and 2.0 both had nearly 100% power. Estimates of relative bias, however, were largely unaffected by sample size. These results suggest that SSA analyses may be a reliable method to identify adverse events associated with a newly marketed medicine in a sufficiently large population, particularly if the uptake of the medicine is rapid.
In all simulations coverage probability was high as was the power. Coverage and power are measures that are dependent on the sample size. In a sensitivity analysis the impact of the prevalence of the medicine use on the performance of PSSA was explored by reducing the percentage of patients initiating the medicines to 5%. In general, the lower use of medicines reduced the power of SSA but increased the coverage probability marginally. This is most likely due to the increased variability and hence the width of the confidence intervals. The performance of SSA in terms of estimating the true estimated effect was slightly affected, as relative bias of the estimates increased marginally. These results suggest that the power calculations are dependent on the percentage of use and consequently the number of pairs generated.
In practice, SSA has been shown to be robust to varying utilization patterns of medicine use
. An application of SSA to the investigation of the association between antipsychotics and hyperglycaemia across six countries found a consistent positive association despite varying patterns of utilization in the different populations. The significance of the association was dependent on the number of pairs generated in each country
. In this study we have explored how varying trends in medicine utilization may impact on the validity of SSA, however, there may be other biases to consider when implementing SSA in practice including confounding by contra-indication and protopathic bias
In this simulation study we fixed the population size at 1 million and only considered a limited number of trends of medicine uptake in DrugA. In this analysis we only varied DrugA, however, in practice trends may occur in either or both DrugA and DrugB. Additionally, we only simulated scenarios where no association between DrugA and DrugB were present and where associations exist from 20% increased risk up to a tripling of risk and negative associations where the expected ASR was 0.6 or 0.8. Future work will be required to determine the validity of SSA under conditions different to those explored here, such as varying population sizes, rates of initiation of both DrugA and DrugB and for more extreme associations. In particular, further studies will be required to determine the performance of SSA in situations where very rare but serious adverse events may be expected. In this simulation we have employed the method of adjustment as described by Tsiropolous
. This method is an amendment from the original technique first described by Hallas
. The rationale for this amendment was described in the paper by Tsiropolous to account for limited time intervals allowed between the exposure medicine of interest and the adverse drug event. This is relevant to the situation simulated in this analysis in which acute adverse events are of interest. In general the method of adjustment is dependent on the situation at hand and it may be more reasonable to use the method as originally described by Hallas. In a sensitivity analysis, the method as described by Hallas
 was implemented and similar results were found (data not shown).
A limitation of the SSA approach in practice is that it can only be applied to post-market surveillance issues where medicines are prescribed to treat the adverse event or where the outcome of interest may be identified as an admission to hospital. Examples of studies which have investigated medicine initiation as a proxy for an adverse medicine event include, insulin initiation as a proxy for acute hyperglycaemia associated with olanzapine initiation
, and antitussive medicine initiation as a proxy for cough associated with ACE inhibitors
[3, 4]. Results of SSA, like all observational study designs, must be interpreted with appropriate consideration given to the sensitivity and specificity of the proxy medicine or adverse event hospital diagnosis as a measure of the adverse event of interest.