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Table 3 Scenarios 1 & 2: 30% 'good' prognosis, ×1.2 'good' prognosis survival, 10% and 25% switching probabilities, 100% treatment effect for switchers, uniform distribution for switching times

From: Assessing methods for dealing with treatment switching in randomised controlled trials: a simulation study

True HR and eψ

Method

Mean estimate

Mean SE

SE of mean

95% Confidence interval

Bias

MSE

Coverage (%)

Successful estimation (%)

     

Lower

Upper

    
 

Hazard ratio methods

         
 

ITT

0.9120

0.0884

0.0882

0.7542

1.1027

0.0120

0.0079

94.6

100.0

 

PP - Exclude switchers

0.9053

0.0932

0.0929

0.7399

1.1076

0.0053

0.0087

94.3

100.0

 

PP - Censor at switch

1.0589

0.1091

0.1086

0.8653

1.2957

0.1589

0.0370

67.5

100.0

 

Time-dependent covariate

1.1998

0.1189

0.1211

0.9880

1.4570

0.2998

0.1046

19.1

100.0

 

Law and Kaldor

0.9168

0.1136

0.1132

0.7192

1.1688

0.0168

0.0131

94.7

100.0

 

Loeys and Goethebeur

0.8900

-

0.1086

0.6999

1.1354

-0.0100

0.0119

94.8

100.0

0.9 & 1.23

AFT methods

         
 

ITT

1.2357

0.2392

0.2423

0.8457

1.8060

0.0011

0.0587

94.6

100.0

 

PP - Exclude switchers

1.2586

0.0932

0.2616

0.8415

1.8830

0.0240

0.0690

94.3

100.0

 

PP - Censor at switch

0.9214

0.1864

0.1897

0.6199

1.3700

-0.3132

0.1341

66.3

100.0

 

Robins and Tsiatis - Logrank

1.2715

-

0.2852

0.8244

1.9604

0.0370

0.0827

94.7

100.0

 

Robins and Tsiatis - Cox

1.2703

-

0.2806

0.8199

1.9888

0.0357

0.0800

95.2

97.2

 

Robins and Tsiatis - Exponential

1.2781

-

0.2820

0.9712

1.7776

0.0436

0.0814

83.0

99.7

 

Robins and Tsiatis - Weibull

1.2714

-

0.2845

0.8278

1.9933

0.0369

0.0823

95.0

99.7

 

Branson and Whitehead

1.2681

0.2455

0.2745

0.8678

1.8536

0.0335

0.0765

92.7

100.0

 

Walker et al

2.2108

1.1659

1.1869

0.8323

1218.7190

0.9763

2.3617

76.6

99.4

 

Hazard ratio methods

         
 

ITT

0.7315

0.0731

0.0743

0.6014

0.8897

0.0315

0.0065

93.6

100.0

 

PP - Exclude switchers

0.7050

0.0744

0.0776

0.5733

0.8669

0.0050

0.0060

94.3

100.0

 

PP - Censor at switch

0.8215

0.0868

0.0886

0.6678

1.0106

0.1215

0.0226

69.2

100.0

 

Time-dependent covariate

0.9364

0.0950

0.0982

0.7675

1.1424

0.2364

0.0655

18.8

100.0

 

Law and Kaldor

0.7376

0.0957

0.0968

0.5720

0.9511

0.0376

0.0108

93.6

100.0

 

Loeys and Goethebeur

0.6733

-

0.0876

0.5220

0.8672

-0.0267

0.0084

93.2

100.0

0.7 & 2.04

AFT methods

         
 

ITT

1.9259

0.3858

0.3992

1.3007

2.8524

-0.1150

0.1726

93.5

100.0

 

PP - Exclude switchers

2.0825

0.0744

0.4676

1.3766

3.1516

0.0417

0.2204

94.3

100.0

 

PP - Censor at switch

1.5194

0.3140

0.3241

1.0136

2.2786

-0.5214

0.3769

66.5

100.0

 

Robins and Tsiatis - Logrank

2.1014

-

0.5024

1.3483

3.3204

0.0606

0.2561

94.5

100.0

 

Robins and Tsiatis - Cox

2.0969

-

0.4977

1.3303

73.7821

0.0561

0.2508

94.9

93.5

 

Robins and Tsiatis - Exponential

2.1041

-

0.5090

1.4957

3.1128

0.0633

0.2631

87.1

100.0

 

Robins and Tsiatis - Weibull

2.1017

-

0.5024

1.3497

3.4566

0.0609

0.2561

94.9

100.0

 

Branson and Whitehead

2.0889

0.4188

0.4770

1.4104

3.0949

0.0481

0.2299

92.2

100.0

 

Walker et al

3.6507

1.8935

1.5878

1.3852

92.4403

1.6099

5.1127

79.5

93.1