Table 2 Main results of the second round of Delphi - mean transition probabilities (%) with 95% CI estimated at the second round of Delphi, and comparison with results from the literature (italics)[8, 9, 13, 14]

Compensated cirrhosis

< 1

Death related to liver disease

10.7% (8.3% - 13.0%)

18.2% (13.9% - 22.5%)

26.4% (19.9% - 32.8%)

10.1% (7.4% - 12.8%)

17% (12.9% - 21.1%)

24.3% (18.2% - 30.3%)

[8]

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

Compensated cirrhosis

1 - 10

HCC

17.1% (13.3% - 20.9%)

25.1% (19.8% - 30.4%)

33.8% (26.2% - 41.4%)

16.8% (11.8% - 21.9%)

23.6% (18.0% - 29.1%)

30.9% (23.6% - 38.2%)

[9]

1%

1%

3%

0.4%

0.4%

1.2%

Compensated cirrhosis

>10

HCC

29.7% (22.2% - 37.2%)

38.7% (30.0% - 47.4%)

46.6% (37.4% - 55.8%)

26.7% (19.1% - 34.3%)

35.2% (26.5% - 44.0%)

44.5% (34.7% - 54.3%)

[9]

2%

2%

4.5%

0.6%

0.6%

1.8%

First decompensation

≤ 1

Death related to liver disease

20.3% (14.9% - 25.8%)

29.1% (22.8% - 35.5%)

39.4% (31.6% - 47.1%)

18.0% (13.3% - 22.7%)

25.9% (19.9% - 31.9%)

34.6% (27.5% - 41.7%)

[8]

39%

39%

39%

39%

39%

39%

First decompensation

≤ 1

HCC

28.7% (20.3% - 37.1%)

37.2% (28.6% - 45.9%)

47.0% (37.4% - 56.5%)

26.2% (18.7% - 33.7%)

32.9% (24.7% - 41.1%)

39.5% (30.2% - 48.9%)

Stable decompensated state^*

Death related to liver disease

21.6% (16.2% - 27.0%)

29.9% (23.8% - 35.9%)

39.2% (32.1% - 46.2%)

20% (14.6% - 25.4%)

27.5% (21.2% - 33.8%)

35.4% (28.1% - 42.7%)

[8]

12.5%

12.5%

12.5%

12.5%

12.5%

12.5%

Stable decompensated state^*

1 - 10

HCC

28.0% (21.5% - 34.4%)

37.7% (30.2% - 45.1%)

47.4% (39.1% - 55.7%)

25.1% (18.5% - 31.6%)

33.4% (26.5% - 40.4%)

40.7% (32.6% - 48.8%)

[9]

1%

1%

3%

0.4%

0.4%

1.2%

Stable decompensated state^*

>10

HCC

45.1% (35.1% - 55.1%)

53.9% (42.9% - 64.9%)

40.5% (31.5% - 49.4%)

50.3% (39.5% - 61.1%)

[9]

2%

4.5%

0.6%

1.8%

Progressive decompensated state^*

Death related to liver disease

35.6% (26.9% - 44.2%)

44.1% (35.5% - 52.8%)

54.5% (44.2% - 64.9%)

27.6% (20.4% - 34.9%)

35.3% (28.0% - 42.7%)

45.0% (36.3% - 53.8%)

[8]

15.6%

15.6%

15.6%

15.6%

15.6%

15.6%

Progressive decompensated state^*

HCC

39.1% (29.4% - 48.9%)

48.1% (37.9% - 58.3%)

58.9% (47.5% - 70.4%)

31.9% (23.8% - 40.0%)

40.7% (31.7% - 49.8%)

51.0% (40.8% - 61.3%)

HCC

≤ 1

Death related to liver disease

32.5% (25.6% - 39.3%)

40.7% (33.3% - 48.2%)

49.9% (41.5% - 58.4%)

26.6% (18.8% - 34.5%)

35.6% (27.5% - 43.8%)

45.5% (36.4% - 54.6%)

[9]

80%

80%

85%

80%

80%

85%

HCC

> 1

Death related to liver disease

41.6% (33.9% - 49.3%)

50.8% (42.5% - 59.1%)

61.5% (52.1% - 70.9%)

34.1% (26.1% - 42.2%)

43.5% (35.0% - 51.9%)

54.6% (45.1% - 64.2%)

[9]

35%

35%

35%

35%

35%

35%