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Table 3 Posterior means, standard deviations and the probability of observing a clinically meaningful effect size of greater than 5 for non-informative, pessimistic and optimistic priors

From: The statistical interpretation of pilot trials: should significance thresholds be reconsidered?

Prior Posterior mean Posterior SD P(>5)
Non-Informative 12.9 6.7 0.88
Pessimistic 5.5 2.8 0.58
Optimistic 7.4 1.8 0.91