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Table 1 Simplified calculation of foodborne disease incidence.

From: Quantifying errors without random sampling

Infectious Agent Estimated Total Cases Observed Cases Estimated %
Foodborne Transmission
Foodborne Incidence
Campylobacter spp 2,453,926 64,577 80 1,963,141
Salmonella, nontyphoidal 1,412,498 37,171 95 1,341,873
Norwalk-like viruses 23,000,000   40 9,200,000
Other 11,763,217    1,309,910
Total for Known Pathogens 38,629,641    13,814,924
Multiplier, observed to total cases 38.0   
Total cases of gastroenteritis 210,813,750  
   of unknown origin (subtract) 172,184,109  
Illness of known etiology, % foodborne (divide) 36%  
Foodborne illness, unknown etiology (multiply) 61,986,279  
Total foodborne illness (not rounded) 75,801,203  
  1. Boldface = parameters with uncertainty distributions in the example. Italics = input parameters (other numbers are calculated within model) An downloadable interactive version of this calculation, which can be used to run the Monte Carlo simulation to estimate total uncertainty, can be accessed via a link in the text.