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Table 1 Definitions of distinct ARM transition probabilities

From: Integrated analysis of incidence, progression, regression and disappearance probabilities

probabilities/time

baseline

5-year

10-year

15-year

prevalence

Pr(ARM(0) = 1,2)

Pr(ARM(5) = 1,2)

Pr(ARM(10) = 1,2)

Pr(ARM(15) = 1,2)

incidence

N/A

Pr(ARM(5) = 1,2|ARM(0) = 0)

Pr(ARM(10) = 1,2|ARM(5) = 0)

Pr(ARM(15) = 1,2|ARM(10) = 0)

progression

N/A

Pr(ARM(5) = 2|ARM(0) = 1)

Pr(ARM(10) = 2|ARM(5) = 1)

Pr(ARM(15) = 2|ARM(10) = 1)

regression

N/A

Pr(ARM(5) = 0,1|ARM(0) = 2)

Pr(ARM(10) = 0,1|ARM(5) = 2)

Pr(ARM(15) = 0,1|ARM(10) = 2)

disappearance

N/A

Pr(ARM(5) = 0|ARM(0) = 1)

Pr(ARM(10) = 0|ARM(5) = 1)

Pr(ARM(15) = 0|ARM(10) = 1)

  1. ARM(0), ARM(5), ARM(10) and ARM(15) represent the 3-level ARM severity scale at baseline, 5-year, 10-year and 15-year follow-up, respectively. N/A = not applicable.