Bayesian estimation of a cancer population by capture-recapture with individual capture heterogeneity and small sample

Table 6 Estimates of incident colorectal cancer cases according to the capture-recapture M _th models 24 capture episodes: age, TNM stage at diagnosis, gender

Model	N*	Sd**	Posterior probabilities	Median	95%HPDI
M_t	517.6	0.0	1.0%	517.6	517.6-517.6
M_h	521.0	2.5	99.0%	520.6	517.6-526.6
M_th	521.0	2.4		520.6	517.6-526.6
M _avg *******	521.0	2.5		520.6	517.6-526.6

*Estimated total number of cases **Standard Deviation ***Average estimate over all models following 25 000 iterations after discarding the initial 5 000 iterations.

ISSN: 1471-2288