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Table 2 Risk stratification capacity of the original model: observed vs. predicted risk

From: Predictor characteristics necessary for building a clinically useful risk prediction model: a simulation study

Predicted risk (%) No. of births per stratum (% of sample) Observed risk (%) Likelihood ratio (95 % CI)
<3.0 5,788 (7.7) 134 (2.3) 0.3 (0.2–0.3)
3.0–5.5 21,654 (28.8) 876 (4.0) 0.4 (0.4–0.4)
5.5–12.0 a 33,178 (44.11) 2,846 (8.6) 1.0 (1.0–1.1)
12.0–15.0 5,960 (7.9) 800 (13.4) 1.7 (1.6–1.8)
>15.0 8,645 (11.5) 1,660 (19.2) 2.7 (2.6–2.9)
Total 75,225 (100.0 %) 6,313 (8.4) -
  1. aGiven a baseline risk of 8.4 %, this category is clinically equivalent to the population average risk