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Table 2 Risk stratification capacity of the original model: observed vs. predicted risk

From: Predictor characteristics necessary for building a clinically useful risk prediction model: a simulation study

Predicted risk (%)

No. of births per stratum (% of sample)

Observed risk (%)

Likelihood ratio (95 % CI)

<3.0

5,788 (7.7)

134 (2.3)

0.3 (0.2–0.3)

3.0–5.5

21,654 (28.8)

876 (4.0)

0.4 (0.4–0.4)

5.5–12.0 a

33,178 (44.11)

2,846 (8.6)

1.0 (1.0–1.1)

12.0–15.0

5,960 (7.9)

800 (13.4)

1.7 (1.6–1.8)

>15.0

8,645 (11.5)

1,660 (19.2)

2.7 (2.6–2.9)

Total

75,225 (100.0 %)

6,313 (8.4)

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  1. aGiven a baseline risk of 8.4 %, this category is clinically equivalent to the population average risk