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Table 3 Robustness of estimates against a decreasing trend of travel rates

From: A statistical method utilizing information of imported cases to estimate the transmissibility for an influenza pandemic

  

r = 0.4%

r = 0.8%

n

Mean

SD

SE

95% CrI

Mean

SD

SE

95% CrI

R 0  = 1.2

4

1.20

0.04

0.02

(1.16, 1.30)

1.20

0.04

0.03

(1.14, 1.28)

8

1.20

0.02

0.02

(1.16, 1.24)

1.20

0.02

0.02

(1.14, 1.25)

12

1.19

0.01

0.01

(1.17, 1.23)

1.18

0.02

0.01

(1.15, 1.22)

16

1.19

0.01

0.01

(1.17, 1.22)

1.18

0.01

0.01

(1.15, 1.22)

20

1.19

0.01

0.01

(1.17, 1.21)

1.18

0.01

0.01

(1.16, 1.21)

R 0  = 1.7

4

1.74

0.09

0.07

(1.61, 1.95)

1.75

0.1

0.07

(1.62, 1.97)

8

1.72

0.06

0.05

(1.62, 1.83)

1.73

0.06

0.05

(1.63, 1.88)

12

1.72

0.05

0.04

(1.64, 1.82)

1.73

0.05

0.04

(1.65, 1.83)

16

1.71

0.04

0.04

(1.64, 1.79)

1.72

0.04

0.04

(1.66, 1.81)

20

1.71

0.04

0.03

(1.66, 1.79)

1.72

0.03

0.03

(1.66, 1.79)

R 0  = 2.2

4

2.27

0.14

0.13

(2.03, 2.60)

2.29

0.16

0.13

(2.04, 2.65)

8

2.25

0.11

0.09

(2.08, 2.49)

2.27

0.1

0.09

(2.10, 2.48)

12

2.23

0.08

0.07

(2.09, 2.42)

2.25

0.08

0.07

(2.13, 2.42)

16

2.23

0.07

0.06

(2.11, 2.37)

2.26

0.07

0.06

(2.13, 2.41)

20

2.23

0.06

0.06

(2.12, 2.36)

2.26

0.06

0.06

(2.15, 2.39)

  1. n numbers of countries having imported cases, r daily decreasing rate of travels, SD Standard deviation of estimates in a simulation, SE Mean standard error of estimates in a simulation, 95% CrI 95% non-parametric credible intervals
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BMC Medical Research Methodology

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