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Table 3 Estimated probability for fever treatment (mean and 95% Bayesian Credible Interval) at the nearest health facility

From: Treatment-seeking behaviour in low- and middle-income countries estimated using a Bayesian model

Region Population estimate 2015a Estimated mean malaria incidence per 1000 population in 2014b Estimated Average travel time to nearest health facility (minutes) Probability of using a dispensary or clinic for fever treatment mean (95% CI) Probability of using a health centre for fever treatment mean (95% CI) Probability of using a Regional or district hospital for fever treatment mean (95% CI)
Zambezi 105,804 1.612 23.0 0.546 (0.369–0.671) 0.537 (0.369–0.667) 0.531 (0.369–0.661)
Kavango 259,984 1.467 29.7 0.513 (0.368–0.649) 0.498 (0.368–0.633) 0.503 (0.368–0.638)
Ohangwena 283,188 1.426 29.3 0.522 (0.368–0.650) 0.494 (0.367–0.630) 0.497 (0.368–0.632)
Oshikoto 210,881 1.256 37.3 0.504 (0.368–0.644) 0.492 (0.367–0.633) 0.496 (0.367–0.637)
Otjozondjupa 167,186 1.227 31.8 0.504 (0.368–0.643) 0.486 (0.367–0.623) 0.499 (0.368–0.637)
Omusati 281,050 1.131 35.6 0.513 (0.368–0.650) 0.497 (0.367–0.637) 0.498 (0.367–0.638)
Omaheke 82,441 1.126 38.3 0.490 (0.367–0.631) 0.496 (0.367–0.637) 0.493 (0.367–0.634)
Oshana 207,218 1.096 17.6 0.561 (0.369–0.677) 0.545 (0.369–0.661) 0.547 (0.369–0.663)
Kunene 102,986 0.967 146.4 0.433 (0.364–0.614) 0.426 (0.364–0.608) 0.429 (0.364–0.612)
Khomasc 418,742 - 43.9 0.487 (0.367–0.636) 0.483 (0.367–0.631) 0.482 (0.367–0.631)
Karasc 88,977 - 110.2 0.447 (0.365–0.619) 0.440 (0.365–0.613) 0.446 (0.365–0.618)
Hardapc 93,447 - 86.7 0.471 (0.366–0.628) 0.470 (0.366–0.626) 0.461 (0.366–0.616)
Erongoc 180,672 - 98.4 0.443 (0.365–0.620) 0.440 (0.365–0.618) 0.440 (0.365–0.617)
  1. Data for health facilities represent public and private entities based on facility census 2009 [85] updated based on HMIS reports. Probability of use for fever treatment estimated from parameters of model 1
  2. aPopulation estimates derived from worldpop [20]
  3. bMean malaria incidence derived from Alegana et al. [86]
  4. cRegions designated as no malaria risk with case incidence of less than 1 per 10,000 population