Table 4 Probability of success and failures at interim and final analysis with Bayesian Emax model with informative prior (Ī²1 ~ N(ā0.5, 1.2*1.2), Ī²2 ~ N(ā2.9, 1.2*1.2) and Ī²3 ~ N(3, 2*2), Ī²1, Ī²2, and Ī²3 are parameter estimates of E0, Emax and ED50 respectively) in the half adaptive design (Scenario 3)
True Dose Response | Bayesian Emax model | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Early success | Early failure | Final success | Final failure | Total Success | Mean subjects | |
Placebo like flat Curve | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 0.79 | 8% | 63 |
Emax Curve | 0.87 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 100% | 51 |
Log Linear Curve | 0.71 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 0.01 | 99% | 54 |
U-Shaped Curve | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 0.40 | 59% | 61 |