Table 2 Absolute overestimation in cumulative recrudescence by Kaplan-Meier (K-M) method compared to Cumulative Incidence Function (CIF) in simulation study I (n = 500 subjects)
Median absolute overestimation [IQR; Range] | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
5% recrudescence | Observed proportion of new infectionsa | Day 28 | Day 42 | Day 63 |
< 10% NI | 3.8% [1.0–6.6] | 0.00% [0.00–0.00; Range:0.00–0.01] | 0.02% [0.01–0.02; Range:0.00–0.06] | 0.06% [0.05–0.07; Range:0.01–0.16] |
10–20% NI | 17.0% [12.8–19.8] | 0.00% [0.00–0.01; Range:0.00–0.02] | 0.08% [0.07–0.10; Range:0.01–0.22] | 0.31% [0.26–0.36; Range:0.13–0.55] |
20–40% NI | 31.2% [25.0–37.8] | 0.01% [0.00–0.01; Range:0.00–0.04] | 0.18% [0.14–0.22; Range:0.04–0.42] | 0.63% [0.54–0.73; Range:0.28–1.20] |
40 + % NI | 43.0% [40.0–50.0] | 0.01% [0.01–0.02; Range:0.00–0.06] | 0.28% [0.23–0.34; Range:0.09–0.60] | 0.94% [0.82–1.09; Range:0.32–1.75] |
10% recrudescence | ||||
< 10% NI | 3.6% [1.2–6.2] | 0.00% [0.00–0.00; Range:0.00–0.02] | 0.03% [0.02–0.04; Range:0.00–0.11] | 0.12% [0.10–0.15; Range:0.03–0.27] |
10–20% NI | 16.4% [10.8–19.8] | 0.01% [0.00–0.01; Range:0.00–0.05] | 0.17% [0.14–0.21; Range:0.05–0.36] | 0.60% [0.53–0.68; Range:0.26–0.96] |
20–40% NI | 30.0% [24.4–36.2] | 0.02% [0.01–0.02; Range:0.00–0.07] | 0.36% [0.31–0.42; Range:0.13–0.89] | 1.22% [1.09–1.37; Range:0.69–2.04] |
40 + % NI | 42.0% [40.0–48.0] | 0.03% [0.02–0.04; Range:0.00–0.08] | 0.56% [0.48–0.65; Range:0.28–1.07] | 1.90% [1.69–2.11; Range:1.18–3.13] |
15% recrudescence | ||||
< 10% NI | 3.4% [1.0–6.2] | 0.00% [0.00–0.00; Range:0.00–0.02] | 0.05% [0.03–0.07; Range:0.00–0.16] | 0.18% [0.14–0.22; Range:0.05–0.46] |
10–20% NI | 16.0% [10.0–19.8] | 0.01% [0.01–0.02; Range:0.00–0.06] | 0.26% [0.22–0.31; Range:0.10–0.54] | 0.92% [0.80–1.03; Range:0.46–1.50] |
20–40% NI | 28.8% [23.0–36.6] | 0.02% [0.02–0.03; Range:0.00–0.08] | 0.54% [0.46–0.62; Range:0.25–1.02] | 1.81% [1.64–2.01; Range:1.11–3.03] |
40 + % NI | 41.0% [40.0–45.8] | 0.04% [0.03–0.06; Range:0.00–0.14] | 0.88% [0.77–1.00; Range:0.44–1.60] | 2.91% [2.64–3.18; Range:1.69–4.30] |