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Table 3 Most extreme under- or overestimation for regions with a minimum number of 10,000 cases

From: Predictive accuracy of a hierarchical logistic model of cumulative SARS-CoV-2 case growth until May 2020

 

Underestimation

Overestimation

Region

EIL

Region

EIL

Day of estimation

Belgium

−0.565

Hubei, China

0.022

United States of America

−0.444

Germany

0.020

Netherlands

−0.422

NA

NA

Switzerland

−0.322

NA

NA

Italy

−0.301

NA

NA

Two weeks forecast

Belgium

−1.274

Austria

0.657

Sweden

−1.171

Quebec, Canada

0.498

Russia

−0.939

Switzerland

0.399

France

−0.651

United States of America

0.336

Iran

−0.556

Germany

0.096

One month forecast

Belarus

−3.719

Austria

1.281

Qatar

− 3.159

Switzerland

0.889

Singapore

−3.155

United States of America

0.714

India

−2.301

Quebec, Canada

0.638

Russia

−2.290

Portugal

0.402

Two months forecast

Bangladesh

−6.097

Austria

1.398

Belarus

−4.730

Switzerland

1.012

Qatar

−4.597

United States of America

0.399

Kuwait

−4.104

Israel

0.358

India

−3.864

Portugal

0.302

  1. EIL difference between logarithmic predicted and observed case counts, NA not applicable