Skip to main content

Table 3 Most extreme under- or overestimation for regions with a minimum number of 10,000 cases

From: Predictive accuracy of a hierarchical logistic model of cumulative SARS-CoV-2 case growth until May 2020

  Underestimation Overestimation
Region EIL Region EIL
Day of estimation Belgium −0.565 Hubei, China 0.022
United States of America −0.444 Germany 0.020
Netherlands −0.422 NA NA
Switzerland −0.322 NA NA
Italy −0.301 NA NA
Two weeks forecast Belgium −1.274 Austria 0.657
Sweden −1.171 Quebec, Canada 0.498
Russia −0.939 Switzerland 0.399
France −0.651 United States of America 0.336
Iran −0.556 Germany 0.096
One month forecast Belarus −3.719 Austria 1.281
Qatar − 3.159 Switzerland 0.889
Singapore −3.155 United States of America 0.714
India −2.301 Quebec, Canada 0.638
Russia −2.290 Portugal 0.402
Two months forecast Bangladesh −6.097 Austria 1.398
Belarus −4.730 Switzerland 1.012
Qatar −4.597 United States of America 0.399
Kuwait −4.104 Israel 0.358
India −3.864 Portugal 0.302
  1. EIL difference between logarithmic predicted and observed case counts, NA not applicable