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Table 4 Log hazard ratios (sd) of the categorical variables in the marginal structural model with and without secular trend included as a predictor variable

From: An assessment of the potential miscalibration of cardiovascular disease risk predictions caused by a secular trend in cardiovascular disease in England

  Female Male
Secular trend not accounted Secular trend accounted Secular trend not accounted Secular trend accounted
Statin initiation −0.34 (0.03) − 0.26 (0.03) − 0.29 (0.03) − 0.22 (0.03)
Ethnicity: Asian other − 0.05 (0.14) 0.07 (0.14) − 0.01 (0.12) 0.10 (0.12)
Bangladeshi 0.24 (0.33) 0.35 (0.33) 0.71 (0.19) 0.80 (0.19)
Black −0.11 (0.09) −0.01 (0.09) − 0.64 (0.10) −0.56 (0.10)
Chinese −0.22 (0.27) −0.13 (0.27) − 0.86 (0.30) −0.77 (0.30)
Indian 0.24 (0.09) 0.31 (0.09) 0.20 (0.07) 0.26 (0.07)
Other ethnic group −0.39 (0.16) −0.31 (0.16) − 0.19 (0.12) −0.11 (0.12)
Pakistani 0.21 (0.18) 0.33 (0.18) 0.66 (0.11) 0.75 (0.11)
Townsend = 2 0.10 (0.02) 0.09 (0.02) 0.01 (0.01) 0.01 (0.01)
Townsend = 3 0.12 (0.02) 0.12 (0.02) 0.08 (0.01) 0.08 (0.01)
Townsend = 4 0.18 (0.02) 0.18 (0.02) 0.14 (0.01) 0.15 (0.01)
Townsend = 5 (most deprived) 0.31 (0.02) 0.30 (0.02) 0.24 (0.02) 0.23 (0.02)
Atrial fibrillation 0.68 (0.03) 0.68 (0.03) 0.53 (0.03) 0.53 (0.03)
Atypical antipsychotic medication 0.38 (0.07) 0.52 (0.07) 0.40 (0.09) 0.55 (0.09)
CKD stage 3/4/5 0.02 (0.05) 0.14 (0.05) 0.27 (0.05) 0.33 (0.05)
Corticosteroid use 0.49 (0.04) 0.49 (0.04) 0.44 (0.04) 0.42 (0.04)
Type 1 diabetes 0.84 (0.09) 0.84 (0.09) 0.41 (0.08) 0.40 (0.08)
Type 2 diabetes 0.65 (0.02) 0.63 (0.02) 0.60 (0.02) 0.58 (0.02)
Erectile dysfunction NA NA 0.16 (0.04) 0.23 (0.04)
Family history CHD 0.15 (0.01) 0.15 (0.01) 0.25 (0.01) 0.25 (0.01)
HIV 0.20 (0.71) 0.27 (0.71) 1.00 (0.19) 1.08 (0.19)
Hypertension 0.18 (0.01) 0.20 (0.01) 0.20 (0.01) 0.22 (0.01)
Migraine 0.17 (0.02) 0.17 (0.02) 0.19 (0.03) 0.19 (0.03)
Rheumatoid arthritis 0.28 (0.03) 0.28 (0.03) 0.25 (0.05) 0.25 (0.05)
Severe mental illness 0.36 (0.01) 0.33 (0.01) 0.28 (0.02) 0.26 (0.02)
Smoking = Ex 0.11 (0.01) 0.13 (0.01) 0.09 (0.01) 0.11 (0.01)
Smoking = Current 0.44 (0.01) 0.44 (0.01) 0.45 (0.01) 0.46 (0.01)
SLE 0.40 (0.13) 0.41 (0.13) 0.26 (0.28) 0.23 (0.28)
  1. CHD coronary heart disease, CKD chronic kidney disease, SLE systemic lupus erythematosus