Table 6 Performance of predictive, prognostic and non-personalized models based on out-of-sample and in-sample predictions
Measure | Out-of-sample mean (SE)a | In-sample mean (SE)a | Sample sizeb | Response | Model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C-Index | 0.5819 (0.0008) | 0.6546 (0.0005) | 307,784 | CDP | predictive |
C-Index | 0.5625 (0.0007) | 0.6220 (0.0004) | 307,784 | CDP | prognostic |
C-Index | 0.5467 (0.0006) | 0.5649 (0.0005) | 307,784 | CDP | non-personalized |
C-Index | 0.6458 (0.0004) | 0.6781 (0.0003) | 505,724 | relapse | predictive |
C-Index | 0.6482 (0.0003) | 0.6700 (0.0002) | 505,724 | relapse | prognostic |
C-Index | 0.5531 (0.0003) | 0.5609 (0.0003) | 505,724 | relapse | non-personalized |
MSE | 0.12497 (0.00005) | 0.11928 (0.00004) | 3119 | CDP | predictive |
MSE | 0.12486 (0.00004) | 0.12132 (0.00003) | 3119 | CDP | prognostic |
MSE | 0.12449 (0.00002) | 0.12388 (0.00001) | 3119 | CDP | non-personalized |
MSE | 0.7554 (0.0008) | 0.7097 (0.0006) | 3119 | relapse | predictive |
MSE | 0.7312 (0.0005) | 0.7049 (0.0003) | 3119 | relapse | prognostic |
MSE | 0.7557 (0.0002) | 0.7517 (0.0001) | 3119 | relapse | non-personalized |
NLL | 1252.6 (0.6) | 1190.9 (0.4) | 3119 | CDP | predictive |
NLL | 1254.0 (0.5) | 1215.5 (0.2) | 3119 | CDP | prognostic |
NLL | 1246.8 (0.2) | 1240.3 (0.1) | 3119 | CDP | non-personalized |
NLL | 2580.8 (0.6) | 2519.9 (0.4) | 3119 | relapse | predictive |
NLL | 2574.6 (0.5) | 2534.9 (0.3) | 3119 | relapse | prognostic |
NLL | 2650.1 (0.2) | 2641.9 (0.2) | 3119 | relapse | non-personalized |