Fig. 3

Synthetic datasets derived from a stochastic homogenous-mixing SEIR transmission model with a population size of 100,000 and time-dependent transmission rate such that the resulting incidence curves are not well-captured by any of the individual models considered in the ensemble model (GLM, RIC, GOM). These simulations have a constant reproduction number of 2.0 from day 0 to day 20, then the reproduction number declines from 2.0 to 1.0 on epidemic day 30 and then finally the reproduction number drops from 1.0 to 0.5 on epidemic day 40. The simulations start with 5 infected individuals. The dashed vertical lines indicate the start and end days of the daily 20-day ahead forecasts