Fig. 3

This figure illustrates an individual patient’s trajectory in pFVC over time with the estimated probabilities of crossing two pFVC thresholds 70 and 60 in within the next year. The probabilities are shown by the shaded areas under the curve. The estimated trajectory with uncertainty (blue curve with grey credible intervals) is shown with the actual observed values (black dots). Patient-specific deviation during the 10 and 3 years prior to time 0 is captured in the estimated trajectory