Table 2 Goodness of fit over the entire time horizon

Damped trend, local level

0.51

0.34

0.42

0.23

0.38

0.29

0.26

0.41

0.27

Current practice

1.01

1.19

1.26

0.94

1.15

1.19

0.90

1.12

1.15

Royston-Parmar model

1.98

2.38

1.87

2.21

2.38

1.50

2.25

2.36

1.40

Damped trend, global level

3.75

4.98

2.36

7.88

2.29

0.52

8.07

1.41

0.35

Local trend, local level

3.33

4.41

2.96

6.86

4.13

1.26

9.18

3.39

0.71

Local trend, global level

6.03

7.12

4.27

15.61

6.67

1.36

18.04

4.65

0.57

Generalised additive model

32.89

18.16

6.85

18.49

6.59

2.12

20.27

4.09

1.53

Fractional polynomial: order 1

312.40

103.82

22.49

326.43

41.25

8.61

331.78

35.71

9.14

Fractional polynomial: order 2

531.90

258.30

147.35

205.23

55.05

85.21

121.62

24.07

65.57

Overall bias

 Damped trend, local level

0.38

−0.03

− 0.19

− 0.12

− 0.35

− 0.40

− 0.30

−0.30

− 0.31

 Current practice

−0.36

− 0.37

− 0.35

− 0.55

−0.55

− 0.54

−0.60

− 0.58

−0.56

 Royston-Parmar model

−0.92

−1.07

− 1.10

− 1.07

− 1.10

− 1.11

−0.88

− 0.79

−0.77

 Damped trend, global level

−0.35

− 1.83

− 1.80

− 1.17

−0.78

− 0.56

−0.76

− 0.18

−0.14

 Local trend, local level

−0.93

− 1.80

−2.14

− 1.32

−1.36

− 1.23

−1.06

− 0.64

− 0.48

 Local trend, global level

− 1.36

− 2.85

−3.13

−1.73

− 1.72

−1.30

− 1.31

− 0.45

− 0.11

 Generalised additive model

−1.55

−2.18

− 1.99

− 0.06

− 0.09

0.05

0.15

0.31

0.23

 Fractional polynomial: order 1

−10.52

−11.87

− 12.24

−5.36

−4.10

− 3.91

−2.37

−1.75

− 1.83

 Fractional polynomial: order 2

−5.45

−8.03

−6.72

1.45

− 0.79

−1.84

4.05

3.53

3.08