Table 1 Model adequacy criteria using GBTM for each scenario

Criteria^a

Scenario 1: Three distinct trajectory subgroups

Validity of classification

1

2

3

Average posterior probability

1.00

0.99

0.98

All criteria suggest good classification

Mismatch

0.03

0.23

-0.26

Relative entropy

0.98

Scenario 2: Different range of values of Y values across subgroups

Average posterior probability

1.00

1.00

All criteria suggest good classification

Mismatch

0.00004

-0.00004

Relative entropy

1.00

Scenario 3: Time point-specific overlap in the distribution of Y

Average posterior probability

0.93

0.56

0.92

All criteria suggest that the classification is not optimal

Mismatch

26.44

-35.27

8.82

Relative entropy

0.34

Scenario 4: Increasing subgroup with variance

1

2

3

4

5

6

Average posterior probability

0.91

0.89

0.90

0.86

0.91

0.88

All criteria suggest good classification

Mismatch

0.19

0.05

0.23

-0.89

0.49

-0.07

Relative entropy

0.87

Scenario 5: Rainbow effect

1

2

3

Average posterior probability

0.84

0.83

0.84

Mismatch and entropy suggest that the classification is not optimal

Mismatch

1.30

-2.89

1.59

Relative entropy

0.65

Scenario 6: No temporal patterns

1

2

3

4

Average posterior probability

0.89

0.89

0.84

0.90

Mismatch and entropy suggest that the classification is not optimal

Mismatch

0.52

-1.97

0.45

1.00

Relative entropy

0.66