Table 3 The clinical performance of the REGARDS model for incident type 2 diabetes: Tehran Lipid and glucose study
Probability threshold (%) | ≥ 10 | ≥ 13 | ≥ 20 | ≥ 30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Population aged ≥ 45 years (N = 1835, DM = 281) | ||||
High-risk population, % | 54.55 | 39.95 | 18.00 | 6.76 |
Incident diabetes*,% | 23.8 | 29.6 | 44.24 | 62.10 |
Sensitivity, % (95% CI) | 84.7 (79.9–88.7) | 77.2 (71.9–82.0) | 52.0 (45.9–57.9) | 27.4 (22.3–33.0) |
Specificity, % (95% CI) | 50.9 (48.4–53.4) | 66.8 (64.4–69.1) | 88.2 (86.4–89.7) | 97.0 (96.0-97.8) |
PPV, % (95% CI) | 23.8 (21.2–26.5) | 29.6 (26.3–33.1) | 44.2 (38.8–49.8) | 62.1 (52.9–70.7) |
NPV, % (95% CI) | 94.8 (93.1–96.2) | 94.2 (92.6–95.5) | 91.0 (89.5–92.4) | 88.1 (86.4–89.6) |
LR+ (95% CI) | 1.73 (1.61–1.85) | 2.33 (2.12–2.56) | 4.39 (3.68–5.23) | 9.1 (6.5–12.7) |
LR- (95% CI) | 0.30 (0.23–0.40) | 0.34 (0.27–0.42) | 0.54 (0.48–0.62) | 0.75 (0.70–0.80) |
Youden Index, % (95% CI) | 35.6 (28.3–42.1) | 44.0 (36.3–51.1) | 40.2 (32.3–47.6) | 24.4 (18.3–30.8) |
AUC (95% CI) | 0.68 (0.65–0.70) | 0.72 (0.69–0.75) | 0.70 (0.67–0.73) | 0.62 (0.60–0.65) |