Table 2 Estimated underreporting parameters and impact of the considered covariates (\({\beta }_{1}\) and \({\beta }_{2}\) are the coefficients for confinement and vaccination respectively) for each Spanish CCAA. Reported values correspond to the median and percentiles 25% and 75% of the corresponding posterior distribution
From: Estimated Covid-19 burden in Spain: ARCH underreported non-stationary time series
CCAA | Parameter | Estimate (P25-P75) |
|---|---|---|
Andalucía | \(\omega\) | 0.97 (0.95—0.99) |
\(q\) | 0.44 (0.41—0.48) | |
\({\beta }_{1}\) | -1.67 (-2.31, -0.39) | |
\({\beta }_{2}\) | -1.71 (-2.66, -0.68) | |
Aragón | \(\omega\) | 0.98 (0.97—0.99) |
\(q\) | 0.28 (0.27—0.32) | |
\({\beta }_{1}\) | 0.76 (0.17, 1.43) | |
\({\beta }_{2}\) | -1.06 (-1.36, -0.69) | |
Asturies | \(\omega\) | 0.97 (0.90—0.99) |
\(q\) | 0.40 (0.37—0.53) | |
\({\beta }_{1}\) | 0.44 (0.11, 0.69) | |
\({\beta }_{2}\) | -0.90 (-1.77, -0.63) | |
Cantabria | \(\omega\) | 0.97 (0.95—0.99) |
\(q\) | 0.30 (0.28—0.35) | |
\({\beta }_{1}\) | -0.44 (-0.71, 0.002) | |
\({\beta }_{2}\) | -0.53 (-1.29, -0.25) | |
Castilla y León | \(\omega\) | 0.98 (0.95—0.99) |
\(q\) | 0.36 (0.32—0.41) | |
\({\beta }_{1}\) | -0.84 (-1.33, -0.23) | |
\({\beta }_{2}\) | -1.22 (-1.88, -0.60) | |
Castilla – La Mancha | \(\omega\) | 0.98 (0.96—0.99) |
\(q\) | 0.33 (0.31—0.36) | |
\({\beta }_{1}\) | 0.06 (-0.18, 0.44) | |
\({\beta }_{2}\) | -0.80 (-1.11, -0.40) | |
Canarias | \(\omega\) | 0.98 (0.96—0.99) |
\(q\) | 0.35 (0.32—0.38) | |
\({\beta }_{1}\) | -0.92 (-2.06, -0.29) | |
\({\beta }_{2}\) | -1.34 (-1.78, -1.06) | |
Catalunya | \(\omega\) | 0.98 (0.96—0.99) |
\(q\) | 0.30 (0.27—0.34) | |
\({\beta }_{1}\) | -0.25 (-0.52, 0.21) | |
\({\beta }_{2}\) | -1.51 (-1.97, -0.94) | |
Ceuta | \(\omega\) | 0.98 (0.95—0.99) |
\(q\) | 0.28 (0.25—0.31) | |
\({\beta }_{1}\) | 0.007 (-0.52, 0.34) | |
\({\beta }_{2}\) | -1.38 (-1.93, -0.84) | |
Extremadura | \(\omega\) | 0.98 (0.95—1.00) |
\(q\) | 0.40 (0.36—0.44) | |
\({\beta }_{1}\) | 1.45 (1.24, 1.83) | |
\({\beta }_{2}\) | -0.72 (-1.30, -0.37) | |
Galiza | \(\omega\) | 0.84 (0.33—0.98) |
\(q\) | 0.41 (0.35—0.56) | |
\({\beta }_{1}\) | -0.20 (-0.53, 0.18) | |
\({\beta }_{2}\) | -2.03 (-3.07, -1.34) | |
Illes Balears | \(\omega\) | 0.98 (0.96—0.99) |
\(q\) | 0.36 (0.33—0.39) | |
\({\beta }_{1}\) | 0.74 (0.43, 1.01) | |
\({\beta }_{2}\) | -0.72 (-1.16, -0.34) | |
Región de Murcia | \(\omega\) | 0.93 (0.45—0.98) |
\(q\) | 0.46 (0.34—0.80) | |
\({\beta }_{1}\) | 0.62 (-0.02, 1.36) | |
\({\beta }_{2}\) | -1.97 (-3.07, -0.59) | |
Madrid | \(\omega\) | 0.98 (0.96—0.99) |
\(q\) | 0.37 (0.34—0.40) | |
\({\beta }_{1}\) | 0.35 (-0.39, 0.59) | |
\({\beta }_{2}\) | -0.35 (-0.77, -0.07) | |
Nafarroa | \(\omega\) | 0.99 (0.97—1.00) |
\(q\) | 0.30 (0.26—0.32) | |
\({\beta }_{1}\) | -1.71 (-1.92, -0.53) | |
\({\beta }_{2}\) | -2.05 (-3.20, -1.33) | |
Euskadi | \(\omega\) | 0.99 (0.97—0.99) |
\(q\) | 0.27 (0.25—0.31) | |
\({\beta }_{1}\) | -0.42 (-0.69, -0.21) | |
\({\beta }_{2}\) | -0.10 (-0.24, 0.00) | |
La rioja | \(\omega\) | 0.98 (0.96—0.99) |
\(q\) | 0.31 (0.28—0.35) | |
\({\beta }_{1}\) | -0.83 (-1.08, -0.35) | |
\({\beta }_{2}\) | -0.43 (-0.71, -0.22) | |
Melilla | \(\omega\) | 0.97 (0.95—0.99) |
\(q\) | 0.34 (0.31—0.37) | |
\({\beta }_{1}\) | -0.48 (-0.82, -0.11) | |
\({\beta }_{2}\) | -1.59 (-2.05, -0.93) | |
País Valencià | \(\omega\) | 0.95 (0.40—0.98) |
\(q\) | 0.46 (0.40—0.67) | |
\({\beta }_{1}\) | 1.45 (1.24, 1.83) | |
\({\beta }_{2}\) | -1.70 (-2.64, -0.52) |