Table 1 Measures of model fitness
Model | Root mean squared errors | Median absolute errors | Control group difference in predicted vs. observed means | Intervention group difference in predicted vs. observed means | Control group mean | Intervention group mean | Mean difference | Ratio of means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Linear | 12.6 (12.6 to 12.6) | 13.1 (12.0 to 13.9) | 0.02 (-1.11 to 1.15) | 0.01 (-1.09 to 1.13) | 14.9 (13.8 to 16.0) | 16.5 (15.4 to 17.6) | 1.59 (-0.01 to 3.18) | 1.11 (1.00 to 1.23) |
Hurdle-negative binomial | 12.6 (12.6 to 12.7) | 13.1 (12.0 to 13.9) | -0.01 (-1.20 to 1.23) | 0.00 (-1.21 to 1.20) | 14.9 (13.7 to 16.1) | 16.4 (15.2 to 17.6) | 1.58 (-0.16 to 3.28) | 1.11 (0.99 to 1.24) |
Zero–one-inflated beta | 12.6 (12.6 to 12.6) | 13.2 (12.1 to 13.9) | -0.03 (-1.15 to 1.11) | -0.12 (-1.23 to 0.96) | 14.8 (13.7 to 16.0) | 16.3 (15.2 to 17.4) | 1.49 (-0.09 to 3.05) | 1.10 (0.99 to 1.22) |
Cumulative logistic (death converted to 0 days in predictions) | 12.6 (12.6 to 12.6) | 13.0 (12.0 to 13.9) | 0.13 (-0.99 to 1.25) | -0.17 (-1.24 to 0.90) | 15.0 (13.9 to 16.1) | 16.3 (15.2 to 17.3) | 1.28 (-0.26 to 2.84) | 1.09 (0.98 to 1.20) |
Cumulative logistic (death predicted as -1 days) | 13.0 (13.0 to 13.0) | 13.3 (12.3 to 14.4) | 0.14 (-1.01 to 1.30) | -0.17 (-1.27 to 0.93) | 14.7 (13.5 to 15.8) | 16.0 (14.9 to 17.1) | 1.32 (-0.27 to 2.92) | 1.09 (0.98 to 1.21) |