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Table 1 Characterization of baseline covariates of included studies and simulated head-to-head trial. Placebo arms from the CLASSIC, EXTEND, and NCT02499783 studies were not included due to the absence of an 8-week parallel arm placebo group (see Fig. 2). CRP = c-reactive protein, TNFi = tumor necrosis factor inhibitor

From: Sequential regression and simulation: a method for estimating causal effects from heterogeneous clinical trials without a common control group

Drug

Certolizumab-

Pegol (CZP)

Natalizumab (NTZ)

Ustekinumab (UST)

Adalimumab (ADA)

Simulated Head-to-Head

Trial Alias

PRECISE1

ENACT

ENCORE

CERTIFI

UNITI1

UNITI2

CLASSICI/II

EXTEND

NCT02499783

Observed Ustekinumab (UST)

Simulated Adalimumab (ADA)

NCT

NCT00152490

NCT00032786

NCT00078611

NCT00771667

NCT01369329

NCT01369342

NCT00055523

NCT00348283

NCT02499783

  

NCT00055497

Year

2003

2001

2004

2008

2011

2011

2002

2006

2015

  

Sample size

N = 603

N = 879

N = 480

N = 252

N = 523

N = 416

N = 73

N = 64

N = 102

N = 149

N = 135

Treatment Group

    Active

304 (50%)

701 (80%)

243 (51%)

126 (50%)

260 (50%)

209 (50%)

73 (100%)

64 (100%)

102 (100%)

149 (100%)

135 (100%)

    Placebo

299 (50%)

178 (20%)

237 (49%)

126 (50%)

263 (50%)

207 (50%)

-

-

-

-

-

Age—Mean (SD)

37 (± 12)

38 (± 13)

38 (± 13)

39 (± 13)

38 (± 12)

39 (± 13)

38 (± 11)

37 (± 11)

33 (± 10)

39 (± 14)

39 (± 12)

Sex: Female—N (%)

337 (56%)

502 (57%)

284 (59%)

145 (58%)

288 (55%)

227 (55%)

38 (52%)

40 (62%)

35 (34%)

82 (55%)

71 (53%)

BMI—Mean (SD)

24 (± 5·3)

25 (± 5·6)

25 (± 6·4)

26 (± 7·3)

22 (± 0·58)

23 (± 0·68)

26 (± 6·0)

25 (± 4·6)

19 (± 2·7)

23 (± 0·73)

22 (± 0·50)

Baseline CDAI—Mean (SD)

300 (± 61)

300 (± 60)

300 (± 61)

320 (± 67)

320 (± 60)

300 (± 56)

290 (± 52)

320 (± 69)

270 (± 48)

290 (± 54)

290 (± 53)

CRP (mg/L)—Mean (SD)

18 (± 25)

20 (± 29)

22 (± 23)

21 (± 28)

17 (± 23)

16 (± 20)

13 (± 17)

20 (± 21)

24 (± 25)

18 (± 24)

14 (± 15)

History of TNFi Use—N (%)

163 (27%)

351 (40%)

223 (46%)

252 (100%)

520 (99%)

135 (32%)

2 (3%)

31 (48%)

0 (0%)

0 (0%)

0 (0%)

Steroid Use—N (%)

235 (39%)

348 (40%)

190 (40%)

134 (53%)

253 (48%)

172 (41%)

21 (29%)

6 (9%)

31 (30%)

68 (46%)

45 (33%)

Immunomodulator Use—N (%)

238 (39%)

302 (34%)

180 (38%)

66 (26%)

172 (33%)

155 (37%)

20 (27%)

26 (41%)

61 (60%)

60 (40%)

57 (42%)

Ileal Disease—N (%)

432 (72%)

678 (77%)

355 (74%)

182 (72%)

420 (80%)

335 (81%)

47 (64%)

48 (75%)

82 (80%)

120 (81%)

112 (83%)

CDAI Reduction—Mean (SD)

67 (± 93)

99 (± 101)

92 (± 98)

65 (± 100)

51 (± 97)

94 (± 101)

114 (± 104)

136 (± 100)

123 (± 82)

110 (± 100)

140 (± 100)