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Table 1 Summary of analyses from simulation setups 1-4

From: Comparing Bayesian hierarchical meta-regression methods and evaluating the influence of priors for evaluations of surrogate endpoints on heterogeneous collections of clinical trials

Data Simulated:

Gaussian True Surrogate Effects

Non-Gaussian True Surrogate Effects

 

FP-RE Summary

NP-RE Summary

PP-RE Summary

PP-RE Summary

PP-FE Summary

Setup 1 (Truth)

     \(\alpha _1\) (0)

0.00(-0.09,0.11)

0.02(-0.46,0.57)

-0.01(-0.14,0.13)

0.00(-0.12,0.13)

-0.05(-0.15,0.06)

     \(\alpha _2\) (0)

0.00(-0.45,0.49)

-0.01(-0.13,0.14)

0.00(-0.12,0.14)

-0.05(-0.15,0.06)

     \(\alpha _3\) (0)

0.01(-0.46,0.57)

-0.01(-0.131,0.13)

0.01(-0.12,0.15)

-0.05(-0.16,0.07)

     \(\beta _1\) (-0.45)

-0.45(-0.63,-0.31)

-0.49(-1.44,0.33)

-0.44(-0.67,-0.24)

-0.46(-0.68,-0.27)

-0.35(-0.49,-0.22)

     \(\beta _2\) (-0.45)

-0.46(-1.52,0.51)

-0.45(-0.68,-0.25)

-0.46(-0.69,-0.27)

-0.35(-0.50,-0.22)

     \(\beta _3\) (-0.45)

-0.47(-1.53,0.49)

-0.44(-0.65,-0.25)

-0.45(-0.67,-0.26)

-0.35(-0.49,-0.21)

     \(\sigma _{e1}\) (0.05)

0.06(0.02,0.14)

0.08(0.02,0.22)

0.06(0.01,0.17)

0.06(0.01,0.17)

0.07(0.01,0.18)

     \(\sigma _{e2}\) (0.05)

0.08(0.02,0.22)

0.06(0.01,0.17)

0.07(0.01,0.17)

0.07(0.01,0.18)

     \(\sigma _{e3}\) (0.05)

0.08(0.02,0.21)

0.06(0.01,0.16)

0.06(0.01,0.17)

0.07(0.01,0.18)

     \(R^2\) 1 (0.95)

0.90(0.60,0.99)

0.80(0.20,0.99)

0.89(0.41,1.00)

0.91(0.49,1.00)

0.92(0.57,1.00)

     \(R^2\) 2 (0.95)

0.78(0.23,0.98)

0.88(0.40,1.00)

0.90(0.48,1.00)

0.91(0.55,1.00)

     \(R^2\) 3 (0.95)

0.80(0.23,0.98)

0.90(0.46,1.00)

0.90(0.48,1.00)

0.92(0.56,1.00)

Setup 2 (Truth)

     \(\alpha _1\) (0)

0.00(-0.11,0.13)

-0.01(-0.43,0.39)

0.01(-0.12,0.15)

0.01(-0.11,0.14)

-0.02(-0.12,0.09)

     \(\alpha _2\) (0)

0.01(-0.57,0.62)

0.01(-0.14,0.18)

0.01(-0.12,0.16)

-0.03(-0.14,0.09)

     \(\alpha _3\) (0)

0.03(-0.54,0.77)

-0.02(-0.20,0.18)

-0.02(-0.20,0.17)

-0.09(-0.25,0.05)

     \(\beta _1\) (-0.25)

0.47(-0.70,-0.27)

-0.25(-1.93,1.54)

-0.32(-0.73,0.06)

-0.33(-0.66,0.00)

-0.24(-0.42,-0.05)

     \(\beta _2\) (-0.35)

-0.40(-1.85,0.97)

-0.40(-0.75,-0.09)

-0.40(-0.72,-0.11)

-0.28(-0.46,-0.11)

     \(\beta _3\) (-0.6)

-0.65(-1.88,0.29)

-0.57(-0.88,-0.30)

-0.55(-0.85,-0.30)

-0.42(-0.61,-0.24)

     \(\sigma _{e1}\) (0.15)

0.13(0.06,0.22)

0.11(0.03,0.27)

0.10(0.02,0.23)

0.11(0.03,0.23)

0.11(0.03,0.24)

     \(\sigma _{e2}\) (0.115)

0.09(0.03,0.24)

0.09(0.02,0.20)

0.10(0.02,0.22)

0.10(0.03,0.22)

     \(\sigma _{e3}\) (0.06)

0.09(0.03,0.26)

0.08(0.01,0.21)

0.09(0.02,0.22)

0.10(0.02,0.22)

     \(R^2\) 1 (0.35)

0.69(0.33,0.91)

0.45(0.02,0.93)

0.53(0.07,0.95)

0.59(0.10,0.95)

0.66(0.16,0.95)

     \(R^2\) 1 (0.65)

0.61(0.07,0.96)

0.69(0.14,0.98)

0.71(0.17,0.97)

0.76(0.25,0.97)

     \(R^2\) 3 (0.95)

0.84(0.29,0.99)

0.85(0.38,1.00)

0.84(0.37,0.99)

0.87(0.48,0.99)

Setup 3 (Truth)

     \(\alpha _1\) (0)

0.01(-0.10,0.13)

0.02(-0.39,0.43)

0.03(-0.10,0.18)

0.01(-0.11,0.14)

-0.02(-0.12,0.09)

     \(\alpha _2\) (0)

0.02(-0.47,0.62)

0.00(-0.15,0.17)

-0.01(-0.15,0.15)

-0.07(-0.19,0.05)

     \(\alpha _3\) (0)

0.05(-0.53,0.81)

0.00(-0.17,0.20)

-0.01(-0.18,0.18)

-0.09(-0.24,0.05)

     \(\beta _1\) (-0.25)

-0.56(-0.80,-0.36)

-0.33(-1.90,1.20)

-0.40(-0.80,-0.03)

-0.36(-0.71,-0.03)

-0.25(-0.44,-0.06)

     \(\beta _2\) (-0.6)

-0.65(-2.09,0.51)

-0.59(-0.95,-0.31)

-0.58(-0.91,-0.32)

-0.42(-0.61,-0.24)

     \(\beta _3\) (-0.6)

-0.68(-1.93,0.26)

-0.60(-0.93,-0.35)

-0.58(-0.87,-0.34)

-0.43(-0.61,-0.26)

     \(\sigma _{e1}\) (0.15)

0.11(0.05,0.20)

0.11(0.04,0.27)

0.10(0.02,0.23)

0.10(0.03,0.23)

0.11(0.03,0.24)

     \(\sigma _{e2}\) (0.06)

0.09(0.03,0.25)

0.08(0.01,0.20)

0.09(0.01,0.21)

0.10(0.02,0.23)

     \(\sigma _{e3}\) (0.06)

0.09(0.03,0.25)

0.08(0.01,0.20)

0.08(0.01,0.21)

0.09(0.02,0.22)

     \(R^2\) 1 (0.35)

0.80(0.46,0.95)

0.51(0.04,0.94)

0.64(0.11,0.96)

0.64(0.12,0.96)

0.69(0.18,0.95)

     \(R^2\) 1 (0.95)

0.81(0.20,0.99)

0.87(0.36,1.00)

0.88(0.41,1.00)

0.88(0.47,0.99)

     \(R^2\) 3 (0.95)

0.86(0.29,0.99)

0.89(0.42,1.00)

0.87(0.43,0.99)

0.89(0.51,0.99)

Setup 4 (Truth)

     \(\alpha _1\) (0)

0.01(-0.11,0.13)

-0.01(-0.45,0.42)

0.01(-0.13,0.16)

0.01(-0.12,0.14)

-0.01(-0.12,0.10)

     \(\alpha _2\) (0)

0.00(-0.64,0.62)

0.01(-0.16,0.19)

0.02(-0.13,0.18)

-0.01(-0.13,0.11)

     \(\alpha _3\) (0)

0.02(-0.59,0.80)

-0.03(-0.23,0.18)

-0.03(-0.22,0.18)

-0.09(-0.25,0.06)

     \(\beta _1\) (-0.25)

-0.44(-0.68,-0.23)

-0.22(-1.91,1.50)

-0.31(-0.73,0.10

-0.31(-0.65,0.02)

-0.23(-0.41,-0.04)

     \(\beta _2\) (-0.25)

-0.26(-1.84,1.35)

-0.31(-0.70,0.06)

-0.33(-0.67,0.00)

-0.23(-0.42,-0.04)

     \(\beta _3\) (-0.6)

-0.64(-1.93,0.37)

-0.55(-0.89,-0.25)

-0.55(-0.85,-0.28)

-0.41(-0.61,-0.23)

     \(\sigma _{e1}\) (0.15)

0.15(0.08,0.24)

0.12(0.04,0.28)

0.11(0.03,0.23)

0.11(0.03,0.24)

0.12(0.04,0.24)

     \(\sigma _{e2}\) (0.15)

0.12(0.04,0.27)

0.11(0.03,0.24)

0.12(0.03,0.24)

0.12(0.04,0.25)

     \(\sigma _{e3}\) (0.06)

0.09(0.03,0.25)

0.09(0.02,0.22)

0.10(0.02,0.23)

0.11(0.02,0.23)

     \(R^2\) 1 (0.35)

0.60(0.24,0.87)

0.47(0.03,0.93)

0.50(0.06,0.94)

0.56(0.08,0.94)

0.63(0.14,0.94)

     \(R^2\) 1 (0.35)

0.47(0.03,0.94)

0.51(0.06,0.93)

0.55(0.07,0.94)

0.63(0.12,0.93)

     \(R^2\) 3 (0.95)

0.84(0.28,0.99)

0.82(0.31,0.99)

0.82(0.34,0.99)

0.86(0.44,0.99)

  1. Summaries include the posterior median and, in parentheses, the 95% credible interval, averaged across simulations