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Table 3 Average Percentage Differences Between the Estimated Treatment Effects and True Treatment Effects from the Causal Forest Algorithm within the Generalized Random Forests Application (CFA-GRF) Under Fully Observed Heterogeneity Across Simulated Populations Which Differ by the Extent That Treatment Effect Influences Treatment Choice

From: Assessing the properties of patient-specific treatment effect estimates from causal forest algorithms under essential heterogeneity

 

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H

I

J

Simulation

Proportion of true (TEi) influencing (ETEi) at Treatment Choice – (Kj)a

% of Treatment Choice Variation Explained by (TEi)b

% of Patients Overlappedc

Average Percentage Difference Between True and Estimated Treatment Effects

Full Population

Treated

Untreated

Overlapped with Fully Observed Heterogeneity

Non-Overlapped with Fully Observed Heterogeneity

Treated

Untreated

Treated

Untreated

1

0

.0006

100

-0.56%

-0.64%

-0.44%

    

2

.10

.18

100

-0.36%

-0.39%

-0.28%

    

3

.20

1.4

100

0.56%

0.38%

0.76%

    

4

.30

5.3

100

-0.84%

-1.12%

-0.54%

    

5

.40

11.9

100

0.48%

-1.21%

2.83%

    

6

.50

20.1

100

-0.24%

-3.55%

4.75%

    

7

.60

27.8

97.0

2.76%

-1.84%

10.31%

-1.15%

8.62%

-14.98%

11110.00%

8

.70

34.5

90.7

-0.96%

-9.78%

14.51%

-7.07%

8.35%

-26.27%

508.00%

9

.80

39.8

84.5

2.84%

-7.74%

22.07%

-3.13%

11.48%

-23.85%

293.41%

10

.90

44.3

78.3

0.08%

-11.66%

22.11%

-5.53%

8.79%

-26.11%

192.88%

11

1.00

48.0

68.8

0.84%

-14.74%

30.99%

-5.33%

10.47%

-28.58%

159.22%

  1. aThe proportion of patient-specific TEi knowledge used by decision makers in simulation “j” in developing the expected treatment effect for patient “i” that is distinct from the population average treatment effect based on the equation ETEi = Kj * (TEi(X1i,X2i,X3i,X4i,X5i,X6i)—.25) + .25
  2. bThe percentage of treatment choice variation explained by TEi using a linear probability model of treatment choice Ti on true TEi using SAS PROC REG procedure with the SCORR1 option
  3. cPercentage of patients in sample with treatment propensity score greater than .05 and less than .95 when all six patient factors are fully specified in the propensity score equation