Fig. 3

a-e The influence of data characteristics on the performance of different modelling strategies compared to the null strategy. Victory rates were estimated across a range of values of a data parameter, keeping all other parameters fixed. a Linear regression using simulated data; the number of observations in the data per model variable was varied. b Linear regression using simulated data; the fraction of explained variance (R²) of the least squares model was varied. c Logistic regression using simulated data based on the full Oudega data; the number of outcome events in the data per model variable was varied. d Logistic regression using simulated data based on the full Oudega data; the explained variance (Nagelkerke’s R²) of the maximum likelihood model was varied. e Logistic regression using simulated data based on the Deepvein data; the number of outcome events in the data per model variable was varied. * A loess smoother was applied to (c), (d) and (e)